The current account deficit (CAD) for the September quarter is set to widen to 1.6 per cent -- the most in the last seven quarters -- a report said on Thursday. In absolute terms the July-September CAD will be USD 15 billion, or 1.6 per cent, as against USD 9.8 billion, or 1.1 per cent, in the June quarter, India Ratings and Research said in the report. The CAD in the second quarter will be the highest since Q3 FY23, where the crucial gap representing the country's external position was USD 16.8 billion, or 2 per cent of the GDP. The domestic rating agency said merchandise exports shrank 3.9 per cent during the period while goods exports were down to a 12-quarter low of USD 103 billion. Goods exports declined after three quarters due to subdued demand from major exporting partners such as China, Singapore, Bangladesh, and Australia, it said. The CAD is moderate to about 1.3 per cent of the GDP in December quarter, Paras Jasrai, its economist and senior analyst, said.
Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, said, "While the CAD expectedly widened in Q1FY25, it undershot our forecast primarily due to secondary income."
India's current account deficit declined to USD 10.5 billion or 1.2 per cent of the GDP in October-December quarter from USD 11.4 billion in the previous three months and USD 16.8 billion a year back, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Tuesday. Net FDI inflow at USD 8.5 billion during April-December 2023 was lower than USD 21.6 billion during April-December 2022, it said. Also, accretion of foreign exchange reserves (on a BoP basis) was at USD 6.0 billion in October-December (third quarter of current financial year that ends on March 31) compared to an accretion of USD 11.1 billion a year ago. The merchandise trade deficit at USD 71.6 billion was marginally higher than USD 71.3 billion during the third quarter of 2022-23. Services exports grew by 5.2 per cent on a year-on-year basis on the back of rising exports of software, business and travel services. Net services receipts increased both sequentially and from a year ago that helped cushion the current account deficit. In t
Stating that the country's external balances are stronger than expected on the back of strong inflows, a Wall Street brokerage on Tuesday projected a much lower current account deficit which is likely to print at 1 per cent for this fiscal, leaving the balance of payment surplus at USD 39 billion. Goldman Sachs in a report said the country's external balances remain favourable with a combination of low CAD, strong capital flows, adequate forex reserves and low external debt. Combined with this, expectations for a weaker dollar due to the likely five US Fed rate cuts this year suggest a "goldilocks" environment for the country's external balances. Accordingly, the Wall Street major has revised upwards its current account deficit (CAD) forecast to 1 per cent of GDP for FY24 from 1.3 per cent earlier, and 1.3 per cent for FY25 from 1.9 per cent earlier, citing a downward revision to their oil price forecast to USD81/barrel in 2024 from above USD90 earlier; and services exports continui
India had seen an improvement in its current account balance in the March 2023 quarter
Net services receipts increased, both sequentially and on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, on the back of a rise in net earnings from computer services
Despite an improved external situation, Goldman expects rupee to underperform Asian peers
The rupee closed FY23 at 82.18 to a dollar, against 75.79 a year ago
Non-resident deposits recorded net inflows of $2.6 billion in the third quarter of the current fiscal as compared to net inflows of $1.3 billion in the year-ago period
CAD may be better than expected in FY23, but India won't be completely out of the woods next year, says official
In the September quarter, CAD touched a nine-year high at 4.4 per cent from 2.2 per cent in the June quarter as the negative net exports shot up to $50.3 billion from $36.3 billion
This could be owing to cheaper crude oil, resilient net services exports and buoyant inward remittances
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Net exports of services rose 35% to $34.5 billion in the second quarter of the current fiscal
Renewed overseas flows to provide support
Balance of Payments position sees depletion of $30.4 billion, says central bank
Indian currency underperforms EM peers; analysts cite shrinking forward premia, widening CAD
State Bank of India has pencilled in lower current account deficit at 3 per cent for this fiscal as against the minimum consensus of 3.5 per cent, citing rising software exports, remittances and a likely USD 5-billion jump in forex reserves via swap deals. Every USD 10 increase in crude prices impacts the Current Account Deficit (CAD) to the tune of 40 basis points while the same on fuel inflation is 50 bps and also results in 23 bps decline in growth, according to Soumyakanti Ghosh, the chief economic advisor at SBI. CAD has a counter cyclical shock absorber, he said in a report on Thursday. Exchange rate is the major contributor to software exports growth and 40 per cent of its variation is explained by exchange rates. "If we translated these numbers in actual terms, every Re 1 fall against the dollar leads to an increase in software exports by USD 250 million". This, along with an expected USD 5 billion-forex reserve accrual by way of swap transactions and higher remittances, wi
Rising global commodity prices have widened India's current account deficit to 2.8% of GDP in Q1. But RBI Governor says, forex reserves compared favourably with most peer economies. Here's more
Services exports, remittances show firm momentum in Q1