Page 2 - Economy Growth Forecast

India's May exports rise 9.1%; merchandise imports up 7.7% at $61.91 bn

Merchandise imports in the same month rose 7.7 per cent year-on-year to $61.91 billion - widening the trade deficit to $23.78 billion

Bank of Japan decides to trim bond buying, keep rates steady at 0-0.1%

BOJ will continue to buy government bonds at the current pace of roughly 6 trillion yen ($38 billion) per month for now

RBI likely to reduce key repo rate when inflation stabilises: India Inc

India Inc welcomed the Reserve Bank's move to raise the growth outlook for FY25 and stated that it expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the key repo rate when inflation stabilises within its target band. The Reserve Bank, which has been mandated to ensure inflation remains at 4 per cent (with a margin of 2 per cent on either side), mainly factors in CPI while arriving at its monetary policy. It left the key interest rate unchanged as widely expected, keeping the focus on inflation amid robust economic growth that is likely to provide the new Modi government headroom for manoeuvring reforms. The central bank also retained its projection for retail inflation at 4.5 per cent for the current fiscal assuming a normal monsoon, while emphasising that uncertainties related to food price outlook warrant a close monitoring. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation has been projected at 4.5 per cent with quarter-wise projections at 4.9 per cent in Q1 (April-June), 3.8 per cent in Q2, 4

RBI monetary policy: When and where to watch the governor's announcement?

RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting LIVE updates: Economists expect the central bank to maintain the repo rate at 6.5 per cent for the eighth consecutive time

Business activity expands in May as exports surge, PMI rises to 61.7

Robust demand was supported by new business in the services industry, which grew at the fastest pace since January, as well as rising manufacturing output and new orders

OECD raises India's FY25 GDP growth projection by 40 basis points to 6.6%

Meanwhile, the agency also noted that private consumption has been less vigorous, confirming the preliminary findings from the latest household consumption expenditure survey

Feasibility check of four Indian states in pursuit of a $1 trn economy

Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra aim to achieve this milestone by 2027-28, while Tamil Nadu targets 2030-31 and Karnataka aims for 2031-32

Moody's sees faster CY24 GDP growth; CMIE predicts low FY25 inflation

For the upcoming financial year, the RBI has projected growth of 7 per cent, while the State Bank of India (SBI) revised upwards its projection to 8 per cent

Knight Frank India hires Harry Rogers as director of global capital markets

On the new addition to the firm, Knight Frank's Chairman Shishir Baijal highlighted the significance of Rogers' appointment at a time when India's real estate market landscape is thriving

ICRA revises bank credit growth estimates upwards to 14.9-15.3% for FY24

Looking ahead, weaker export demand in certain sectors, softer commodity prices, and challenges in deposit mobilisation could temper bank credit growth in FY25, Gupta said

MPC's Jayanth R Varma envisions lower inflation, higher growth in 2024

The Indian economy has withstood all geopolitical shocks in the last couple of years and it will also be able to navigate the uncertainties that lie ahead, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Sunday. Varma further said he expects a benign outcome in 2024 where inflation comes down and growth remains robust. "The Indian economy has withstood all these shocks ( Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas war, rising oil prices, Houthi attacks) in the last couple of years, and I do not believe that the geopolitical situation will be significantly worse in coming months than what we experienced in the recent past," he told PTI in an interview. Moreover, Varma, a professor at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, said the continued slowdown in China has led to sharply reduced demand for energy and other commodities, and this too has ameliorated the adverse effects of supply shock. "On the whole, I have a great deal of confidence that India will be able to ..

Sri Lanka raises fuel retail prices by Rs 20; first under new VAT hike

The Sri Lankan government raised retail fuel prices by Rs 20 effective from Monday in its monthly revision, making it the first retail price hike of any commodity under the imposition of new Value-Added Tax rates. The government revises fuel prices monthly based on the exchange rate of the US dollar and the global oil market prices. However, Monday's hike was purely a result of the new VAT rates. Sri Lanka's VAT rate has been increased by three per cent from Monday for the band, which was previously taxed at 15 per cent, while most VAT-exempt items have been brought under 18 per cent in a highly unpopular move. Last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the release of the second tranche worth USD 337 million to the cash-strapped island nation, bringing the value of disbursements to USD 670 million in the four-year facility. With its reforms, the IMF programme meant that the government set cost-based tariffs for utilities, while several rate hikes on electricity ...

S&P Global, Morgan Stanley peg India's GDP growth at 6.4% in 2024

Those at Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, see the Indian economy growing a tad lower at 6.3 per cent in the year ahead.

Moody's retains India's 2023 forecast at 6.7% on strong domestic demand

Moody's Investors Service on Thursday retained India's economic growth forecast for 2023 at 6.7 per cent and said strong domestic demand will likely sustain the growth in the near term. With exports remaining weak against an unfavourable global economic backdrop, Moody's in its Global Macroeconomic Outlook 2024-25 said sustained domestic demand growth is propelling India's economy. We expect India's real GDP to grow about 6.7 per cent in 2023, 6.1 per cent in 2024 and 6.3 per cent in 2025, Moody's said. India's real GDP rose 7.8 per cent year-over-year in June quarter, up from 6.1 per cent in March quarter and bolstered by a 6 per cent increase in household consumption and solid capital expenditure and service sector activity. Moody's said high-frequency indicators show that the economy's strong June quarter momentum carried into July-September as well. Robust goods and services tax collections, surging auto sales, rising consumer optimism and double-digit credit growth suggest ur

As US dollar fades, emerging currencies poised for recovery in 2024: Report

After getting battered for most of 2023, emerging market (EM) currencies have made modest gains against the dollar after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady last week.

World Bank slashes 2023 growth forecast for East Asia and Pacific to 5%

World Bank said that while China is expected to grow at 5.1% this year, up from 3% in 2022, the rest of the countries in the region are expected to see a slowdown

S&P retains India's FY24 GDP forecast at 6% on slowing world economy

ADB had revised downwards India's growth forecast for FY24 by 10 basis points to 6.3 per cent due to erratic monsoon patterns, thus affecting agricultural output

India must grow at 8% to transform lives: Former US treasury secy

Speaking at a CII event, Larry Summers highlighted that the issues India faces are less related to the scale of the govt and more about its effectiveness

India must grow at 8% to bring transformational changes for people: Summers

India has the potential and should aim to grow at 8 per cent annually to bring about transformative changes in the lives of millions of people by around 2050, said noted economist and former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers here on Saturday. India's GDP growth in 2022-23 was 7.2 per cent as against 9.1 per cent in 2021-22. According to the Reserve Bank of India's projections, India's GDP will likely grow 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal year. Summers clarified that 8 per cent growth was not his forecast on the basis of current policy, but added, "given India's potential, even in a more challenging world economy, I believe that it is an imaginable goal. "...an eightfold expansion in the economy is transformative in the lives of hundreds of millions of people. I think it is something to target as India defines its greatness in this next century." In his lecture on 'The World is on Fire', organised by the CII in partnership with Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), the eminent .

India Ratings revises GDP growth estimate for FY24 to 6.2% from 5.9%

India Ratings and Research on Wednesday upwardly revised its FY24 real GDP growth estimate to 6.2 per cent from the 5.9 per cent expected earlier. The domestic ratings agency attributed its revision to a variety of factors, including the government's capital expenditure, deleveraged balance sheets of India Inc and banks, subdued global commodity prices and the prospect of private capital expenditure picking up. India Ratings, however, also flagged some constraints on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the current fiscal year before the general elections, including a slip in global growth, which has hit Indian exports, tighter financial conditions upping cost of capital domestically, a deficit monsoon, and tepid manufacturing growth. "All these risks will continue to weigh and restrict India's GDP growth to 6.2 per cent in FY24, and the quarterly GDP growth, which came in at 7.8 per cent in the June quarter, is slated to slow down sequentially in the remaining three quarters of .