MUMBAI (Reuters) - The Indian rupee and government bond yields are likely to take cues from the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on Dec. 14, one of a host of high-profile, potentially market-moving economic events in the week.
They're also likely to signal another 50 basis points of tightening next year, according to economists, and an expectation that once they reach that peak, they'll stay on hold through all of 2023
The trading activity in the domestic equity market this week will be largely driven by a host of macroeconomic data announcements and the US Fed interest rate decision, analysts said. Industrial Production data and retail inflation rate are scheduled to be announced on Monday. Besides, wholesale inflation data will be released on Wednesday. "This week is going to be crucial in terms of global cues, where the US inflation numbers and the outcome of US Fed policy decision will be the most important events for the market. "On the domestic front, our industrial production and retail inflation numbers will be announced on December 12, while wholesale inflation numbers will be announced on December 14," said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd. Apart from this, news flows from China, the movement of crude oil prices and the dollar index will be other important factors. Institutional flows also need to be watched, as FIIs have been net sellers for the past week, Meena
The Indian rupee rose on Friday, but gains were capped due to dollar demand amid a slump in the greenback
So far in 2022, the Fed has hiked rates by a total of 375 bps, leading to a stronger dollar and diminishing the appeal of emerging market assets
Douglas W Diamond, winner of this year's Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, says it is difficult to predict exchange rates but the rupee should stabilise once the US "reduces the speed of its rate increases". In an email interview to PTI, the American economist also said that when the US raises exchange rates unexpectedly, the dollar tends to appreciate and things will normalise when interest rates are closer to each other in the US and India. Diamond, a Merton H Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, shared the Nobel Prize with former US Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke and US-based economist Philip H Dybvig for their research into the fallout from bank failures. According to the Nobel panel at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in Stockholm, their research has shown "why avoiding bank collapses is vital". Asked about the continuous fall of the Indian rupee against the USD dollar, Diamond says, "It is
"It is way too early to conclude that inflation is headed sustainably down," Christopher Waller, US Federal Reserve Governor
As dollar index breaches key technical levels, outlook on rupee improves
The data boosted other currencies against the dollar. The Japanese yen at one point climbed to its biggest single-day rise since 2008 and the British pound notched its biggest daily
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The rupee depreciated 8 paise to 82.88 against the US dollar in morning trade on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates and maintained a hawkish stance. At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 82.87 against the dollar, then lost further ground to quote at 82.88, registering a loss of 8 paise over its previous close. In initial trade, the local unit also touched 82.84 against the American currency. On Wednesday, the rupee settled at 82.80 against the American currency. According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors, the US Fed's commentary was not dovish at all. "Oil was higher at USD 95.50 per barrel while GBP and Euro were lower after the hawkish FED comments." The rupee could trade in the range of 82.50-83.20. "Exporters may sell dollars at 83 levels keeping a close watch on RBI while importers may continue to buy all dips they get," Bhansali said. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's
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The Federal Reserve pumped up its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday by three-quarters of a point for a fourth straight time but hinted that it could soon reduce the size of its rate hikes. The Fed's move raised its key short-term rate to a range of 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent, its highest level in 15 years. It was the central bank's sixth rate hike this year a streak that has made mortgages and other consumer and business loans increasingly expensive and heightened the risk of a recession. But in a statement, the Fed suggested that it could soon shift to a more deliberate pace of rate increases. It said that in coming months it would consider the cumulative impact of its large rate hikes on the economy. It noted that its rate hikes take time to fully affect growth and inflation. Those words indicated that the Fed's policymakers may think borrowing costs are getting high enough to possibly slow the economy and reduce inflation. If so, that would suggest that they don't need to ..
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