India has seen GDP growth of 7% or more for five straight years only once in the past 30 years
To slash excess liquidity from a 6-month to 3-month level
The rating agency assumes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is more likely to drag on and escalate than end earlier, pushing the risks to the downside
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has revised downwards its growth projection for FY23 to 7.2 per cent from 7.8 per cent earlier
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Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for the next fiscal to 8.5 per cent from 10.3 per cent, citing sharply high energy prices on account of the Russia-Ukraine war. With the Omicron wave subsiding quickly, containment measures have been scaled back, setting the stage for a pick-up in GDP growth momentum in the June quarter this year, the agency said. It has revised upwards the GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal by 0.6 percentage points to 8.7 per cent. "However, we have lowered our growth forecast for FY 2022-2023 to 8.5 per cent (-1.8 pp) on sharply higher energy prices," Fitch said while revising up its inflation forecasts. In its Global economic Outlook-March 2022, Fitch said the post-COVID-19 pandemic recovery is being hit by a potentially huge global supply shock that will reduce growth and push up inflation. "The war in Ukraine and economic sanctions on Russia have put global energy supplies at risk. Sanctions seem unlikely to be rescinded a
Moody's slashed India's growth projection to 9.6% for 2021, from its earlier estimate of 13.9%, and said faster vaccination will be paramount in restricting economic losses to June quarter
These will be on top of RBI's May 5 measures, such as Rs 50,000 cr package for healthcare sector and recast of loans up to Rs 25 cr for individuals and small businesses
The Survey is also bullish about medium-term growth prospects, largely due to the expenditure support and various reforms.
In comparison, emerging markets and developing countries group saw a 2 percentage reduction in outlook while the world outlook was only cut by 1.9 percentage points
India's economic growth is forecast to slow to 1.2 per cent in 2020, a further deterioration from the already slowed growth of 4.1 per cent in 2019
S&P expects India's growth to bounce back in FY22
Crisil had earlier forecast the GDP printing in a 5.7 per cent expansion
Weakness has been fairly broad-based, with both domestic spending and external demand losing momentum, Fitch said
Given India's policy and institutional constraints, it will be difficult to significantly accelerate economic growth from present rates
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Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg said growth in Asia's third largest economy was expected to grow 7.3-7.5 per cent.
If there was 6.9% growth in India, that would top China's 6.8% annual pace for October-December
The study uses artificial intelligence, big data and predictive analytics to come up with an outlook on future trade and includes seven top trading nations in the world
China is projected to grow at 6.8 per cent in 2017, which is 0.1 percentage more than its two previous projections