India's appetite for Russian oil revives as cheaper Venezuelan supplies dry up after the US again imposes sanctions on Latin American nation
India's net oil import bill could widen to USD 101-104 billion in current fiscal from USD 96.1 billion in 2023-24 and any escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict could impart an upward pressure on the value of imports, ICRA said on Tuesday. The domestic rating agency said based on its analysis, lower value of Russian oil imports is estimated to have led to savings of USD 7.9 billion in 11 months (April-February) of 2023-24, up from USD 5.1 billion in 2022-23. "With India's oil import dependency expected to remain high, if the discounts on purchases of Russian crude persist at the prevailing low levels, ICRA expects India's net oil import bill to widen to USD 101-104 billion in FY2025 from USD 96.1 billion in FY2024, assuming an average crude oil price of USD 85/bbl in the fiscal," ICRA said. Additionally, any escalation in the IranIsrael conflict and an associated rise in crude oil prices could impart an upward pressure on the value of net oil imports in the current fiscal year, it .
Product imports in March fell 6.1% from the previous month to 3.83 million tonnes, its lowest since July 2023, while exports gained 6.4%
Union minister Hardeep Singh Puri discusses India's oil economy management amid escalating West Asia tensions and affirms BJP's strategic electoral stance in Punjab
Import volumes remained stable at 232 mmt in FY24 as dependency increase
According to estimates by the London-based commodity data analytics provider Vortexa, which tracks ship movements to gauge imports
China imported 1.82 million barrels per day of Russian crude by sea in March, exceeding India's 1.36 million bpd
Both benchmarks fell less than 1% last week versus the previous week. A stronger US dollar, which rose about 1% over the last week, has kept a lid on prices
India currently imports LNG via seven terminals. Along with the Chhara facility, Swan Energy Ltd.'s Jafrabad import facility is also expected to begin operations this year, according to BloombergNEF
Uncertainty over Venezuelan supplies comes amid reduced discounted Russian flows
The share of oil from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imported by India declined from about 65% in 2022 to 50% last year, according to industry data
The three refiners had been in talks with Russia's Rosneft PJSC to secure about 500,000 barrels a day - equivalent to a third of India's daily imports
India is the world's third-largest crude importer and is forecast to be the leading driver of global consumption growth this decade
Discounts on Russian oil, which have already declined to around $3.5-$4 per barrel, are also expected to fall further as sanctions are seen as driving up freight costs
India's refiners are keen to take more Russian oil, but there would need to be US approval for buying to ramp up again, the executives said, asking not to be identified because the information is priv
Washington on Friday imposed sanctions to mark the second anniversary of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine and retaliate for the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny
Crude oil imports in January rose 9.5% month-on-month to 21.39 million metric tons, and were up 5.7% on year-on-year basis, Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) data showed on Thursday
India did not receive Sokol oil in December and January, data from trade sources and the ship tracking data shows
"We will make a decision at some point in time" on crude oil sales to India in a long-term deal, Vickram Bharrat told reporters on the sidelines of industry event India Energy Week in Goa
Last year, India emerged as a top buyer of sea-borne Russian oil sold at a discount after Western countries halted imports following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine