Page 2 - Indian Inflation

Inflation will not come below RBI's tolerance level in FY23: IMF's Choueiri

India relative bright spot in the world; 6.8 per cent growth rate 'really a good number': Senior executive

RBI's repo rate hike was necessary to combat inflation risks: MPC minutes

The MPC is of the view that further calibrated monetary policy action is warranted to keep inflation expectations anchored

Retail inflation rate expected to gradually decelerate after Sept: Report

Consumer price-led inflation is expected to gradually decelerate after September, helped by a fall in commodity prices and easing food inflation, analysts said

Next budget will have to be carefully structured to maintain growth: FM

The next annual budget of India will have to be very carefully structured to sustain the country's growth momentum, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Tuesday, noting that it will also address inflation concerns. Visiting Washington DC to attend the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the finance minister was responding to a question on the next year's budget at a fire-side chat with eminent economist Eshwar Prasad at the prestigious Brookings Institute. Specifics (of the next budget) may be difficult at this stage because it's a bit too early. But broadly, the growth priorities will be kept absolutely on the top. Even as I speak about the concerns that inflation brings before me. So, inflation concerns will have to be addressed. But then how would you manage growth would be the natural question, Sitharaman said. India's next annual budget is scheduled to be presented by Sitharaman before the Parliament next February and preparations

Inflation may fall to 5.2% next fiscal on normal rains, supply ease: Report

Persistently high inflation remains a key policy concern for the Reserve Bank, which has raised rates aggressively so far this year, but the pressure might ease next fiscal assuming normal rains and further normalisation of global supply chains without any exogenous shocks, according to an RBI report. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects retail inflation to come under control at 5.2 per cent in the next financial year beginning April, down from 6.7 per cent it has forecast for the current year. "For 2023-24, assuming a normal monsoon, a progressive normalisation of supply chains, and no further exogenous or policy shocks, structural model estimates indicate that inflation will average 5.2 per cent," RBI said in its 'Monetary Policy Report September 2022'. The central bank is mandated to keep retail inflation in a range of 2-6 per cent. However, inflation has been above the RBI's upper tolerance level since January 2022 mainly due to adverse supply shocks amid geopolitical tensio

RBI repo rate hike to manage growth-inflation dynamics, say bankers

Bankers welcomed the 50 bps hike in the repo rate by RBI on Friday, saying the move helps manage the growth and inflation dynamics as such a gradualistic approach is welcome amid rising global uncertainty. Bankers are of the view that a cautious monetary policy will help better address the risks of rising instability in the global economic and financial environment. SBI Chairman Dinesh Khara opined that the monetary policy statement, which was on expected lines, is a nudge to stay nimble and agile in a volatile global environment. Considering the evolving macroeconomic developments domestically and across the globe, the 50 bps repo hike is on expected lines, said A K Goel, chairman of the Indian Banks Association. He, however, was quick to note that considering the headwinds from the geopolitical tensions and tightening of the global financial conditions, there is risk to our external sector, especially exports. Goel, who is also the managing director of Punjab National Bank, ...

How is the Indian economy really doing?

All the heady optimism has overlooked the vulnerable state of the macro-economy. Caution, not complacency, is the more appropriate sentiment for now

RBI's rate setting panel starts deliberations; decision on Friday

The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel on Wednesday started deliberations on the keenly awaited monetary policy amidst expectation of 50 basis points hike in interest rate to check inflation and improve foreign capital inflow to arrest declining value of rupee against the US dollar. The decision of RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das headed six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be announced on September 30. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure the consumer price index (CPI) remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side, but retail inflation has stubbornly stayed above the RBI's comfort zone since January. As per the latest data, the inflation was at 7 per cent in August. While inflation remains high, the Indian rupee is sliding sharply, the US dollar and was currently trading near 82 against the greenback. The rupee depreciation has hastened following the US Fed raising their interest rate thrice by 75 basis point each in the recent past. Other

Hawkish Fed may prompt Reserve Bank to deliver a 50-basis-point hike

The RBI's monetary policy committee (MPC) has already hiked the key policy rate by 140 bps since May to 5.4%

Reducing govt spending holds the key to fixing India's inflation worries

If the finance ministry wants private investment to revive, it must make things easy for it and resist the temptation to go on spending just because it can

Cooperative sector happy with Centre's decisions, says FM Sitharaman

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday said the representatives of the local cooperative sector were "extremely happy" with the various steps taken by the Centre for their benefit. The minister was speaking to reporters after concluding her three-day tour of the Baramati Lok Sabha constituency in Pune district. Those who exploited the cooperative sector for political gains never thought of creating a separate ministry for it, and it was Prime Minister Narendra Modi who set up the cooperative ministry, she said. Notably, Baramati is the home-turf of NCP chief Sharad Pawar, the former Union agriculture minister whose party has a significant presence in the cooperative sector. "I had a meeting with the representatives of different cooperative institutions such as banks and sugar (mills) and they are extremely happy and there were claps after claps for various steps being taken such as relief to be given to them, taxation concession that was extended, waiving of the long

Retail inflation in Sept to rise to five-month high at 7.4%: Deutsche Bank

India's headline retail inflation is expected to rise to a five-month high of 7.4% in September, with the risk of going higher if the momentum of food and vegetable prices picks up further in the rest

Indians optimistic on growth outlook amid high inflation: EY study

They are shifting to new brands in search for value, says multi-nation survey

Shortfall in Kharif output may keep rice prices at elevated levels

A 6-7 million tonnes shortfall in rice production due to a fall in paddy sowing area is likely to keep rice prices at elevated levels, adding to the inflationary pressure that the slowing economy is already grappling with. Elevated food prices, including that of cereals, had led to retail inflation reversing a three-month declining trend, to touch 7 per cent in August. Similarly, the wholesale price inflation, which declined to 11-month low, also showed price pressures from cereals resulting from wheat output being impacted by severe heat waves in some parts of the country. In addition to this, expectation of a lower paddy output - conservative by government estimates and higher if outside experts are to be believed - will keep inflationary expectations higher, experts and analysts believe. Erratic June-September rainfall and delayed withdrawal of South-West monsoon rains have added to concerns over paddy crop. India's rice production during the 2021-22 crop year, ended June, stoo

Amid high inflation, surge in services demand helps steady India's economy

The indicators showed sentiment in the services sector -- which accounts for over 50% of the $3.2 trillion economy -- was upbeat, tax revenue were robust and demand for loans high.

India in better position to tackle growth, inflation challenges: CII Prez

India is in a much better position to deal with the challenges related to growth and inflation, said Sanjiv Bajaj, President of industry body CII. According to official figures, India's retail inflation continues to remain above the Reserve Bank's tolerance level of 6 per cent since January, while the economic growth in the first quarter of the fiscal was 13.5 per cent, lower than the central bank's estimate of 16.2 per cent. "I don't want to say we don't have our own challenges with growth, with inflation but we are in a much better position and credit must go to everybody including the central and state governments. I don't see economic growth as an issue," Bajaj, who is also the CMD of Bajaj Finserv, told PTI. Tata Steel Managing Director and CII's former President T V Narendran also spoke to PTI and appreciated the efforts undertaken by states to attract investments. "There are complexities to solve but ... I feel the environment is encouraging investments, encouraging growth,

India inflation rate likely rose to 6.9% in August, says Deutsche Bank

The risks to food inflation persist with negative seasonality kicking in for the September-November period, the bank said

'Must provide jobs to those not well-educated to go beyond freebies'

Harvard Business School professor Christian Ketels says it isn't useful to think of manufacturing versus services jobs; a range of sectors need to be mobilised for job creation

India's economic indicators give conflicting signs of recovery in July

Demand for Indian goods and services softened, a cross-section of high-frequency indicators compiled by Bloomberg News showed

Is India ahead of 'unacceptably and uncomfortably high' phase of inflation?

The state of the economy report authored by RBI staff said the fall in the inflation rate in July was a heartening development