Here is the best of Business Standard's opinion pieces for today
Inflation is expected to ease in the coming quarters
Inflation and central bank policy rates seem to have peaked for most countries, while the pace of economic activities remains varied across economies
Europeans again saw some relief as inflation dropped to 2.4% in November, the lowest in more than two years, as plummeting energy costs have eased a cost-of-living crisis but higher interest rates squeeze the economy's ability to grow. Inflation for the 20 countries using the euro currency fell from an annual 2.9% in October, according to numbers released Thursday by Eurostat, the European Union's statistics agency. It's a far cry from the peak of 10.6% in October 2022 as an energy crisis left Europe's households and businesses struggling to make ends meet. The new figure is close to the European Central Bank's inflation target of 2% following a rapid series of interest rate hikes dating to summer 2022. But the tradeoff is stalled economic growth. With energy prices plunging 11.5% from a year earlier, it raises expectations that the ECB would hold rates steady for the second time in a row at its next meeting Dec. 14. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated this week that the ban
Despite the disinflation progress, officials on both sides of the Atlantic insist they want to see more evidence to be sure that consumer prices are durably under control
Inflation in the UK dropped sharply in October to its lowest level in two years largely because last year's steep rise in domestic energy bills dropped out of the annual comparison, official figures showed Wednesday. The Office for National Statistics said consumer prices in the year to October were 4.6% higher than the year before, much lower than the 6.7% recorded in the previous month. The decline means Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's pledge to halve inflation this year has been met. Sunak made the pledge soon after becoming prime minister when inflation was more than 10%. I did that because it is, without a doubt, the best way to ease the cost of living and give families financial security, he said. "Today, we have delivered on that pledge. The government can take comfort from the decline but the main reason why inflation has fallen in that time is because of the big interest rate increases from the Bank of England, which is tasked with meeting a target inflation rate of 2%. Earl
"Another rate hike from here looks less likely given this softer inflation data," Miskin said
But food prices can pose policy challenges
The ongoing elections in the three states could also be influenced if inflation rears its head again.
The European Central Bank and other policymakers across Europe need to keep interest rates at current elevated levels until they're sure inflation is under control despite sluggish growth, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, warning against premature celebration as inflation declines from its peak. The Washington-based IMF said that the cost of underestimating inflation's persistence could be painfully high and result in another painful round of rate hikes that could rob the economy of a large chunk of growth. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the other central banks that aren't part of the 20-country eurozone are reaching the peak of their interest rate cycles, while some have started to reduce policy rates, the IMF said in its twice-yearly regional economic outlook for Europe. Nonetheless, a prolonged restrictive stance is still necessary to ensure that inflation moves back to target. Historically, it takes an average of three years to return ...
A moderation in retail inflation in September from its peak in July has bolstered macroeconomic fundamentals even as global growth lost pace from the third quarter, a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) article said Thursday. According to the article on 'State of the Economy' published in the latest RBI Bulletin, in India, a broad-based gaining of momentum is discernible in high frequency indicators. Deleveraging and higher capacity utilisation have enabled capital-heavy industries to gain traction, it added. "The Indian rupee (INR) is exhibiting low volatility. Inflation has moderated from its July peak, bolstering macroeconomic fundamentals," the article said. Retail inflation declined to a three-month low of 5.02 per cent annually in September on account of moderation in vegetables and fuel prices, and back within the Reserve Bank's comfort level. The inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 6.83 per cent in August and 7.41 per cent in September 2022. In July, inflation touch
It's a bit early to know the full implications of the conflict, and much will depend on whether it draws in other countries, Gita Gopinath said
Lower sowing and higher food prices have increased risks to inflation outcomes
Resilient demand in the world's largest economy, bolstered by unrelenting job growth, has complicated Federal Reserve efforts to get inflation down to its preferred level
Supply-side issues will complicate policy choices
Higher US inflation can increase currency volatility
Speaking of inflationary pressures, Bhasin said that the company's focus has been on protecting consumer value and efficiencies in the packet
'India as G20 chair has given confidence to Third World'
Sitharaman says green shoots of private capex upcycle can be felt now
Inflation will be reduced in next three months, says Somanathan