Ncaer

Indian economy remains resilient amid global uncertainties: NCAER

Amid global geo-political uncertainties, the Indian economy has remained resilient but the outlook seems softer due to moderation in a couple of high-frequency indicators, according to the Monthly Economic Review for August. The review was released by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER). The report said bank credit growth of scheduled commercial banks (both food and non-food) moderated in June 2024. Personal loan credit growth and bank credit for the services sector has decelerated, it added. The economic think tank said: "The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing and services declined marginally in July 2024 but maintained its expansionary momentum". However, growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and IIP for core industries moderated in June 2024. NCAER said that while Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline inflation declined in July 2024, mainly due to an easing of food inflation, wholesale price inflation also declined in July 2024.

India's economy likely to record over 7% growth in FY25, says NCAER

The Indian economy could grow higher than 7 per cent and possibly closer to 7.5 per cent in the current fiscal on the back of normal monsoon and receded electoral uncertainty, economic think tank NCAER has said. In its July 2024 issue of Monthly Economic Review (MER), NCAER said real GDP grew by 8.2 per cent in FY2023-24, driven by stable consumption demand and steadily improving investment demand. "Based on the momentum in the high-frequency indicators, normalised monsoon, a relatively benign global outlook and receded electoral uncertainty, both in India and in the rest of the world, growth will likely turn out to be higher than 7 per cent, and possibly closer to 7.5 per cent," NCAER director general Poonam Gupta said. Gupta said the Union Budget 2024-25 lived up to the expectations of unwavering commitment to fiscal consolidation, prudence, and quality. The Budget has kept the fiscal deficit target at 4.9 per cent of GDP and capital expenditure at 2.4 per cent of GDP during ...

Business confidence index improves to 150 in Q1 FY25 from 138 in Q4 FY24

The majority of firms continue to expect the prospects of employment in the next six months of both skilled and unskilled or casual and permanent workers to remain the same as in the past three months

Poverty declines to 8.5% in 2022-24 from 21.2% in 2011-12: NCAER paper

Poverty in India is estimated to have declined to 8.5 per cent in 2022-24 from 21.2 per cent in 2011-12, despite the challenges posed by the pandemic, according to a research paper by the economic think tank NCAER. The paper titled 'Rethinking Social Safety Nets in a Changing Society', authored by Sonalde Desai of NCAER, used data from the newly completed Wave 3 of the India Human Development Survey (IHDS) as well as data from Waves 1 and 2 of the IHDS. "According to the IHDS findings...poverty declined significantly between 2004-2005 and 2011-12 (from a headcount ratio of 38.6 to 21.2), and it continued to decline between 2011-12 and 2022-24 (from 21.2 to 8.5) despite the challenges posed by the pandemic," the paper said. The paper said economic growth and poverty decline create a dynamic climate that requires nimble social protection programmes. Traditional strategies designed to address chronic poverty in a large segment of society may be less effective as accidents of birth bec

India faces high debt, but sustainable for now: NCAER director-general

At nearly 82 per cent of GDP, India's public debt is very high, but the country doesn't face debt sustainability issue on account of high growth rate and higher share of local currency debt, NCAER Director General Poonam Gupta has said. Participating in an event organised by NCAER, Gupta said India's high debt levels are sustainable for now because of higher real or nominal GDP and as most of the debt is held in rupee. The states together hold one-third of the total debt, and in the 'business as usual' situation, their debt levels will only increase further over the next five years, Gupta said. "In a handful of states like Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, Debt-to-GDP ratio could increase by 50 per cent," Gupta said, adding that the states, including the most indebted ones, also don't face sustainability issue as they have implicit guarantee of the Centre and as states cannot hold debt in foreign currency or floating rate. Drawing a comparison between Punjab, one of the most indebted ..

FY25 GDP growth may come close to 7.5%: NCAER's Monthly Economic Review

Growth projections have been upgraded by various other agencies as well, with the median projection at 6.9 per cent

Key indicators suggest economy remains buoyant at end of FY24: NCAER

Indian economy shows resilience with PMI growth, strong GST collections, and bank credit growth

Economy remains resilient, manufacturing regaining momentum: NCAER

High frequency indicators reveal that the Indian economy remains resilient with Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for services accelerating and manufacturing regaining momentum, economic think tank National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said in report released on Wednesday. Further, NCAER said the composite PMI accelerated to 61.2 in January from 58.5 in December 2023. PMI for manufacturing activity accelerated to 56.5 in January from 54.9 in December 2023, reflecting an expansionary momentum while PMI for services went up to 61.8 in January from 59 in December 2023, it added. "The markers for the month like PMI and GST collections point to a resilient macroeconomic environment. "An encouraging signal comes from easing of inflationary pressure, especially the moderation in food price inflation," NCAER Director General Poonam Gupta said. The report mentioned about healthy GST collections which reached a value of Rs 1.7 lakh crore in January, registering a year-on-year

Getting to grips with logistics cost

As India focuses on reducing the cost, it is important to get the numbers right

Reduction of logistics cost is a big macro turnaround for India

The country will create jobs and encourage consumption and demand by reducing logistic cost

Firms dither on hiring as labour market stagnates, says NCAER survey

The 126th round of the survey covering 500 firms was conducted in September, with support from the National Stock Exchange (NSE)

All-round improvement in business sentiments in Q2, shows NCAER survey

A survey by prominent economic think-tank NCAER showed an all-round improvement in business sentiments in the second quarter of the current fiscal. The Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose from 128 in the first quarter of the current fiscal to 140.7 in the second, the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said. The BCI was also higher than 132.5 in the year-ago period, the NCAER said. The NCAER-NSE BCI was driven by four components -- overall economic conditions will improve in the next six months, financial position of firms will improve in the next six months, present investment climate is positive, and present capacity utilisation is close to or above the optimal level. "The share of positive responses was higher for all four components of the BCI in 202324:Q2 compared to 202324:Q1," showed the 126th Round of NCAER Business Expectations Survey (BES) in September 2023, with support from the NSE. The survey is based on responses from 500 companies. "Business ...

Monthly income of food delivery workers fell 11% over 3 years: NCAER

The report also mentions that the food delivery platforms have helped create jobs for young workers in Tier-II and Tier-III cities

Food delivery platforms should help gig workers on e-Shram portal: NCAER

Economic think tank NCAER on Monday suggested that food delivery platform operators should ensure their gig workers register themselves on the e-Shram portal, and also help them enrol in PDS, Ayusham Bharat scheme and Atal Penson Yojana. Noting that the government is the best medium to provide social security to gig workers, the NCAER study also said platform companies should provide additional revenue to the government to finance the social security in a centralised fashion. According to the NCAER's report on 'Socio-economic Impact Assessment of Food Delivery Platform Workers', 61.9 per cent of the workers received rations, only 12.2 per cent of them have an Ayushman Bharat card, 7.1 per cent are registered on the e-Shram portal and 4 per cent have the Atal Pension Yojana. "Platform companies should ensure that workers are enrolled on the e-Shram portal and help them enrol on PDS, Ayusham Bharat/State Health Scheme and Atal Penson Yojana at the time of enrolling them," said the stu

Seeking 'accuracy': Govt to come up with fresh logistics cost estimate soon

Initial indications suggest a number lower than 14-16%, says senior official

Business sentiment turns buoyant in fourth quarter, says NCAER survey

However, labour market prospects for the next six months seem stagnant as the majority of firms expect no change in the labour employed

Business confidence recovers from lows of 2019-20 and pandemic yrs: NCAER

Business confidence has recovered from the lows of the pre-pandemic (201920) and the following two pandemic years, though sentiments continued to soften sequentially in the three quarters of the current fiscal, economic think-tank NCAER said. The NCAER-NSE Business Confidence Index (BCI) was higher at 126.6 in the third quarter of 202223 than the year-ago's level of 124.4. "However, sentiments continued to soften sequentially in the first, second and third quarters of 202223," it said. The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) further said sentiments relating to macro conditions remained relatively buoyant in the third quarter of 202223 as compared to the second. The share of positive responses increased for the component overall economic conditions will improve in the next six months' and remained unchanged for the component present investment climate is positive'. In contrast, sentiments pertaining to firms' own conditions softened between the two quarters for th

External sector could face some anxious moments, says CEA Nageswaran

He said that the way the oil price cap is being discussed has encouraged oil and gas traders to stock up on volumes, creating unintended consequences

Global shocks are best times for radical reforms: G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant

He added that India needs to refocus on other areas, pointing to the need to expand the money spent on green technology

Business confidence falls for second straight quarter, says NCAER survey

Earlier, it was at 142.9 in the fourth quarter of 2021-22. It was 117.4 in the corresponding quarter last year