BS EDIT: Currency-market intervention should be more selective

By Business StandardPublished On Oct 22, 2024

RBI’s stance on rate cuts

The RBI keeps the repo rate at 6.5%, with Governor Das warning that premature cuts could be risky amid global uncertainty, despite calls for easing monetary policy

Inflation outlook

Despite inflation cooling, the RBI expects consumer price index inflation to remain elevated, driven by food prices

Currency management

Governor Das emphasised that the RBI doesn’t target a specific exchange rate but intervenes to control excess volatility

Intervention in currency market

The RBI's intervention has reduced volatility, but sustained efforts risk overvaluing the rupee. The REER showed the rupee was 5% overvalued in August, down from 7% in July

The cost of overvaluation

Sustained rupee overvaluation may impact India's competitiveness and exports. The RBI must manage volatility without creating an unintended policy bias that hampers growth

A selective approach

The RBI's selective intervention is key to balancing volatility control and rupee valuation, helping India safeguard competitiveness and ensure long-term sustainable growth