51 elections, no central count: How US media 'calls' presidential polls

In the United States, it is customary for news organisations to ‘call’ election results before official announcements are made. Instead of simply reporting leads and trends, major television networks and news agencies frequently declare definitive results based on their own analysis.

 

The US holds 51 separate elections on election day – one in each state and the District of Columbia – each governed by its own rules and voting procedures. Unlike in other countries, such as India, there is no central federal body responsible for consolidating election results at a national level.

 

The Federal Election Commission oversees election finance rules but does not regulate the conduct of elections or result tabulation. Responsibility for organising and counting votes is decentralised, with states, and sometimes individual counties, managing their own processes. Advocates of this decentralised approach argue that it reduces the risk of federal interference, although it can lead to a more fragmented and prolonged counting process.

 

 

Race callers in news organisations study a range of data, including historical voting patterns, recent opinion polls, and county-specific statistics on in-person and mail-in ballots. When polls close, they assess incoming votes alongside demographic data, the type of ballots cast, and the number of remaining uncounted ballots to project the results.

 

For presidential elections, this involves calling results state by state; once enough states are declared to reach the required Electoral College votes, the media may call the overall race. For example, in 2020, the Associated Press declared Joe Biden the winner four days after Election Day, on 7 November.

 

Role of Associated Press and other media outlets

The Associated Press (AP) has established itself as a key player in US election coverage, having called every presidential race since 1848. The AP only declares a winner when the outcome is certain. In some cases, however, it may label a race ‘too close to call’ if the margin is within 0.5 percentage points, leaving the final outcome open until all ballots are counted.

 

Broadcasters such as Fox News, NBC, CNN, CBS, and ABC also run their own decision desks. Since 1990, most of these networks have participated in the National Election Pool (NEP), which provides live updates using exit poll data. Edison Research supplies this data to ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC, and Reuters, while AP, following its departure from the NEP in 2016, developed its own polling system, AP VoteCast, now used by several other outlets including Fox News and The Wall Street Journal.

 

The media’s method of calling elections allows for timely updates, though the official certification process at the state level can take days to weeks. No federal body offers public updates throughout this period, and the Electoral College vote in January formally concludes the process of selecting the president.