Can the new French govt solve New Caledonia crisis after months of unrest?

After four months of deadly unrest in New Caledonia, tensions in the French Pacific territory between the pro-independence Indigenous Kanak people and the white settler communities loyal to Paris are simmering as the vast archipelago east of Australia marks the anniversary of colonization on Tuesday.

The communities stand far apart on the territory's future following the Kanaks' revolt in May against President Emmanuel Macron' s voting reform in New Caledonia. The loyalists have called on supporters in the capital, Noumea, to mark the 171st anniversary of the French takeover by honking horns during a radio broadcast of France's national anthem, La Marseillaise.

 

Separately, the National Council of Chiefs of the Kanak people is meeting on the neighbouring Mare Island and is expected to unilaterally declare sovereignty over the Kanak nation on their customary territories. Macron sidelined the controversial voting reform along with the situation in New Caledonia in June after he dissolved the Parliament and called for early legislative elections.

As mainland France was embroiled in an unprecedent political crisis following July's inconclusive vote and the Paris Olympics euphoria, it was France's police and military troops that were largely dealing with the unrest and discontent in New Caledonia. They conducted raids and arrests of authorities suspected of involvement in violence that included clashes, looting and arson. Thirteen people were killed and widespread damage was done to businesses, homes and public property amounting to 2.2 million euros.

Since the start of Macron's presidency in 2017, the French Pacific territory has been central to his Indo-Pacific strategy as he aimed to boost France's influence in the region where China and the U.S. are jostling for power. New Caledonia is a major global producer of nickel, a critical raw material that is needed to make electric vehicle batteries, solar panels, steel and other everyday items.

French colonialism vs. independence struggle New Caledonia became French in 1853 under Emperor Napoleon III, Napoleon's nephew and heir. It became an overseas territory after World War II, with French citizenship granted to all Kanaks in 1957. The Pacific archipelago of about 300,000 people is 10 time zones ahead of Paris and known to tourists for its UNESCO World Heritage atolls and reefs.

Tensions have simmered for decades between the Indigenous Kanaks, who have long sought to break free from France after suffering from strict segregation policies and widespread discrimination, and colonizers' descendants and other white settlers who want it to remain part of France. People of European descent in New Caledonia distinguish between descendants of colonizers and descendants of the many prisoners sent to the territory by force. During the 1980s, tensions between the communities morphed into violence that had brought the archipelago to the brink of a civil war.

Peace deal to end all peace

A peace deal between rival factions was reached in 1988. A decade later, France vowed to give more political power and broad autonomy to New Caledonia and the Kanak people and hold up to three successive referendums, which could pave the way to self-determination as part of the agreement known as the Noumea Accord.

The three referendums were organized between 2018 to 2021 and a majority of voters chose to remain part of France instead of backing independence. The pro-independence Kanak people rejected the last referendum's results in 2021, which they boycotted because it was held at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic that severely affected the Kanak community.

Tensions were rising and deepened early this year when Macron rushed through Parliament a bill aimed at amending France's constitution and change voting lists in New Caledonia. It granted voting rights in local elections to residents who have settled there in the last decade leaving the Indigenous people in fear of further erosion of their rights and erasure of their identity.

Police crackdown on pro-independence group

The adoption of the controversial bill by both houses of the French Parliament in May led to mass demonstrations that turned violent, prompting Macron to declare a state of emergency and fly thousands of police and army reinforcements to the far away territory. Thirteen people, mostly Kanaks, and two police officers, have been killed and nearly 3,000 people have been arrested since New Caledonia's police launched an investigation just days after the protests in May turned violent.

Among those detained in broad police raids were 11 Kanak activists with the pro-independence group known as The Field Action Coordination Unit that has organized protests against French rule since April. Seven of the detained activists, including Christian Tein, a Kanak leader, were flown 17,000 kilometers (10,500 miles) away from home to seven prisons in mainland France for pretrial detention.

Eroded trust and no hope for dialogue

The activists' transfer in June triggered renewed rioting across the archipelago. It widened the gap between the communities and quashed the remaining bit of trust in political actors' willingness to overcome enormous differences over New Caledonia's future and its economic disparities with concrete and serious negotiations that Macron had demanded during his whirlwind trip to Noumea in May.

Tein's group accused French authorities of colonial practices and demanded the activists' immediate release and return to their homeland. They vowed that the Kanak people will never give up on their desire for independence with peaceful means. France's then-interior minister Gerald Darmanin said The Field Action Coordination Unit was a mafia-style organization that comprised delinquents and criminals who operate under the disguise of a pro-independence movement. His comments caused fury among Kanak leaders with Grand Chief Hippolyte Sinewami-Htamumu expressing full support for the pro-independence group.

New prime minister, new policy?

After weeks of wrestling with political blocs in the fractured Parliament, Macron's new Prime Minister Michel Barnier formed a new government on Saturday. France's ballooning debt and a new budget will top Barnier's agenda. But many have called on the veteran politician and former EU Brexit negotiator to change France's approach to New Caledonia and tackle its security and economic crisis with policies that would deliver on the Noumea Accord promise: a common destiny and, eventually, complete emancipation.

Barnier is expected to outline his approach in his inaugural policy speech in the National Assembly, France's influential lower house of Parliament, on Oct. 1. His first decision on New Caledonia is likely to be whether to hold or postpone provincial elections scheduled for Dec. 15.