China's consumer inflation holds steady in May, factory deflation eases

China's consumer inflation held steady in May while producer price declines eased, but the underlying trend suggests Beijing would need to do more to prop up feeble domestic demand and an uneven economic recovery.
 

Weak consumption in China has kept a lid on consumer prices since 2023 despite many rounds of support measures as confidence remains low in the face of a protracted property sector crisis.
 

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3 per cent in May from a year earlier, matching a gain in April, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Wednesday, below a 0.4 per cent increase forecast in a Reuters poll.
 

 

CPI edged down 0.1 per cent from the month before, against a 0.1 per cent rise in April and compared with economists forecasts for zero growth.
 

"I think the deflationary pressure has not faded yet," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

"The CPI inflation is slightly negative in m-o-m terms. The improvement in PPI is largely driven by commodity prices such as copper and gold, which is not a reflection of China’s domestic demand," he said.
 

Asian shares were subdued, while China's blue chips were down in early trade following the data.
 

Producer prices, which were stuck in deflation since September 2022, fell at a slower 1.4 per cent pace in May after contracting 2.5 per cent in April, and compared with a forecast 1.5 per cent decline.
 

"For investors, the key question is whether China's PPI inflation could turn positive in the second half of this year, given the recent rise in commodity prices, particularly copper," said Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International.

"Overall, today's inflation report suggests that a moderate reflation is still ongoing, while a low infaltion is likely to remain the base case," Zhou added.
 

China's economy has struggled to motor on despite the end of stringent Covid curbs in late 2022, mainly due to the ripple effects of a prolonged property sector crisis on investor, business and consumer confidence.
 

Beijing has rolled out several measures to spur demand in the housing sector and launched other schemes to boost consumer sentiment, including offering government-subsidised incentives to spur trade-ins of autos and other consumer goods.
 

It has also vowed to create more jobs linked to major projects, roll out measures to promote domestic demand targeted for youths and has pledged greater fiscal stimulus to shore up growth.
 

Wednesday data on the core inflation measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, highlighted the fragility of domestic demand. It stood at 0.6 per cent in May year-on-year, slowing from 0.7 per cent in April.
 

Many economists expect Beijing to unveil more support measures in coming months to keep the economy on track to reach its GDP growth target of "around" 5 per cent for this year, and foster a sustainable rebound.
 

"A more comprehensive and proactive policy stance covering fiscal, monetary, and property sector may be necessary to boost domestic demand more effectively," Pinpoint's Zhang said.