 "Geert Wilders (pictured) meets with members of his party at the Dutch Parliament")
By Cagan Koc & Diederik Baazil
Far-right lawmaker Geert Wilders won the Dutch elections and said he plans to lead the country’s next government, in a shock result that will resound across Europe.
The frontrunner Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius conceded defeat after a late surge in the final days of the campaign catapulted Wilders’s anti-EU party past his mainstream rivals. Wilders’s Freedom Party won 37 seats, according to a preliminary count, more than doubling his representation from the previous parliament and giving him 12 more than his closest rival.
Only once in recent Dutch history has the leader of the biggest party not become prime minister. Market reaction in the wake of the results was muted as traders took stock of the fact that coalition arrangements may take a long time to negotiate.
Wilders’s victory presents a challenge to the European Union project in one of the bloc’s six founding members as the world braces for the potential return of Donald Trump after next year’s US election. Wilders has promised voters a binding referendum on leaving the EU and railed against a range of the bloc’s policies on issues like climate change and immigration.
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“The hope of the Dutch people is that they will get their country back,” Wilders said after an exit poll published by state broadcaster NOS.
Wilders’s prospects of leading the next government will hinge on his ability to forge alliances with rivals more to the center. In his post-election speech, Wilders called for a coalition that would include the liberal VVD, until recently helmed by outgoing prime minister Mark Rutte, which has indicated that it might be prepared to govern alongside him. “I am willing to compromise in talks with other parties,” he said.
The AEX index of the 25 largest stocks listed on the Euronext Amsterdam little changed in morning trading. Chip gear maker ASML Holding NV slipped 1 per cent while ING Groep NV was down 1.2 per cent at 11 am in Amsterdam. Dutch bonds were underperforming German peers by one basis point.
“We will be in for months of intense negotiations and it’s very hard to predict how this will exactly pan out,” said Peter van der Welle, a multi-asset strategist at Robeco.
A surge in the number of refugees since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as the spiraling cost of food and energy, has fueled support for far-right groups across the European continent. Germany’s Alternative for Deutschland now has more support than any of the parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition, while Giorgia Meloni came from nowhere to take power last year in Italy.
The Dutch election campaign highlighted how immigration has polarised voter opinion and driven support toward Wilders, for whom the topic has been a core issue for decades. The 60-year-old is known for his anti-Islamic views and has lived under police protection since 2004 on account of death threats.
Wilders also backed BJP leader Nupur Sharma over her remarks on Prophet Muhammad during a TV debate last year. “Never give in to Islamic terrorists like Al-Qaida, they represent barbarism. The whole Indian nation should rally around #napursharma now and support her. Al Qaida and the Taliban put me on their hitlist years ago. One lesson: never bow to terrorists. Never!” he had said.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban was quick to congratulate him on his victory. The outspoken Brussels-critic held a phone call with Wilders on Wednesday night, wishing him “success and perseverance for the upcoming political negotiations,” spokesman Zoltan Kovacs said in a post on X.
Wilders and his team hugged and cheered as the result was announced and sang along to the Rocky theme tune Eye of the Tiger. “It’s customary thatthe biggest and winning party takes the lead in the formation process” said Stefan Couperus, an associate professor of political science at Groningen University. “He could become the leader of the new government.”
