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Global defence plan triggered as 100-metre asteroid may hit earth in 2032

Asteroid 2024 YR4: A hundred-metre-wide asteroid has been placed at the top of impact risk lists after being spotted in December last year

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100-metre-wide asteroid showed the possibility of colliding with Earth before Christmas in 2032

Sudeep Singh Rawat New Delhi

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Several global planetary defence agencies were triggered when a 100-metre-wide asteroid showed the possibility of colliding with Earth before Christmas in 2032.
 
An automated telescope in Chile spotted the Asteroid 2024 YR4 on December 27 last year. The US and European space agencies maintain impact risk lists and placed this asteroid at the top of the list.
 
According to reports, this asteroid has a 1.3 percent chance of hitting the Earth on December 22, 2032. The asteroid is currently placed on the list of Near-Earth Objects. Torino impact hazard scale placed this asteroid at level three as it has the highest chance to hit Earth among all the other large objects being tracked by NASA and other space agencies.
 

Asteroid most likely to pass harmlessly

Professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, Colin Snodgrass, believes that this asteroid is most likely to pass Earth without any damage. 
 
“It just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that. The longer we follow its orbit, the more accurate our future predictions of its trajectory become," he added.
 
The Torino scale ranges from zero to 10, where zero holds no risk while 10 means a certain collision. It poses a threat to the future of civilisation as we know it.
 
Apophis received the highest rating on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, i.e., four, and it made headlines for hitting Earth in 2004. However, the rating was later downgraded as observation showed that it posed zero threat for at least a century.

Asteroid response groups activated

After the detection of the asteroid, two UN-endorse global asteroid response groups were activated. The International Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group started observing the asteroid to reduce and narrow down uncertainties in its orbit.
 
The asteroid is currently moving away from Earth in a straight line making it tough to ascertain its accuracy of the asteroid. Astronomers are looking to find out more information about the asteroid before it fades from view. If the measurements do not rule out the impact in 2032, then the asteroid will remain on space agencies' risk lists until it comes back to view in 2028.
 
“The first step in the planetary defence response is to trigger further observations,” Snodgrass said. 
 
“If these observations don’t rule out an impact, the next steps will be more detailed characterisation measurements using telescopes, and discussion of what space agencies could do in terms of more detailed reconnaissance and eventually mitigation missions. This asteroid is of the scale that a mission like Dart could be effective, if required, so we have the technology and it has been tested,” he added.

Asteroid 2024 YR4: Key features

Feature Details
Closest Approach December 22, 2032
Current Distance 27 million miles from Earth
Chance of Impact 1 in 83 (subject to revision with new data)
Potential Impact Corridor South America to sub-Saharan Africa
Possible Effects Airburst explosion or impact crater, depending on composition
Source:Dailygalaxy.com

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First Published: Jan 31 2025 | 4:52 PM IST

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