How a French trader predicted Trump's victory by asking about the neighbour

Believing traditional polling methods to be biased and outdated, a trader known as 'Trump whale' made $50 million by betting on Donald Trump's victory using the 'neighbour effect'

Everyone has heard of the nosy neighbour stereotype — those who try to peek through your windows, eavesdrop on private conversations, and keep the community gossip mill running. What many may not have considered is that the neighbour might be best suited to predict a country's election result. This was true for the US Presidential election 2024, where a mysterious figure known as the “Trump whale” earned nearly $50 million by betting on Donald Trump’s victory.

 

The trader, who goes by the pseudonym Theo, not only predicted a Trump win but also wagered on Trump’s success in both the popular vote and several key swing states. Speaking to The Wall Street Journal through a series of emails, Theo explained how he defied conventional polls and why his "ask the neighbour" approach stands out from traditional poll-based predictions.

 

 

Who is 'Trump whale' Theo?

According to The Wall Street Journal, Theo is a wealthy and experienced French trader. This is all that is known about him, as he has kept his identity a mystery. Theo reportedly has a background in financial services and trading at banks, and he invested over $30 million on a crypto betting platform, Polymarket, on Trump’s election win.

 

The Trump whale has claimed that his intentions behind the bet were purely financial, without any political affiliations or agendas. Since the story first broke, he has maintained contact with a Wall Street Journal reporter, sharing insights into his methods and critiquing standard polling practices.

 

What method did the Trump whale use to predict US polls?

Theo used a polling approach he called the "neighbour effect". Instead of asking pollsters whom they intended to vote for, he asked them whom they believed their neighbour would vote for.

 

The reason for this approach was that most people may feel reluctant to reveal their own political leanings but are more open to guessing the political preferences of those around them. This approach also relieved respondents from the pressure of sharing their own views and could be seen as a light-hearted exercise.

 

Flaws and bias in traditional polling methods

Theo’s approach stemmed from what he perceived as bias within the traditional polling system. He believed that mainstream polls underestimated Trump’s popularity, particularly in swing states. His commissioned surveys further revealed that Trump’s support was stronger than traditional polls suggested, reinforcing his confidence in his unconventional bet.

 

Theo argued that mainstream polls often cater to biases, particularly favouring Democratic candidates. This tendency, he claimed, could skew results, making public opinion appear more aligned with one candidate than it was in reality. His analysis of past election data showed Trump’s tendency to outperform poll expectations in crucial regions.

 

The 'shy Trump voter' phenomenon

A key point Theo raised was the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon. According to Theo, many Trump supporters are less likely to participate in polls or openly disclose their support. He viewed this as a systemic issue in US polling, feeling that traditional methods fail to capture the full spectrum of voter sentiment, especially in swing states.

 

Exit polls missed the mark in Indian elections

Exit polls in India have faced increasing scepticism this year, with both general election and Assembly election predictions significantly missing the mark.

 

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, exit polls overestimated the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) performance while underestimating the Opposition's growing influence. While it can be argued that predicting polls for a nation as large as India involves logistical challenges, state Assembly election estimations also proved inaccurate. Polls predicted victories for the Opposition in some states and a hung Assembly in others, yet actual results were starkly different.

 

For instance, exit polls projected a victory for the Congress party in Haryana, suggesting an end to a decade of BJP governance. Contrary to these predictions, the BJP won 48 constituencies, while Congress secured 37. This unexpected outcome prompted Congress to challenge the results with the Election Commission of India, alleging discrepancies in vote counting and electronic voting machines.

 

In Jammu and Kashmir, exit polls forecasted a lead for the Congress-led alliance. However, results diverged from these predictions, with the BJP performing better than expected.

 

Similarly, in Chhattisgarh, exit polls anticipated a comfortable win for Congress. Yet, the BJP defied expectations, securing an unexpected victory with over 50 seats.

 

Exit polls and polling data are crucial for gauging public sentiment before elections. When exit polls are significantly inaccurate, they can stir political controversy, especially in polarised environments. In many cases in India, losing parties have demanded investigations or re-counting to ensure accuracy. To ensure that exit polls provide accurate insights into voter sentiment, it is essential to develop better survey methodologies.