How climate change contributes to dangers, influences paths of hurricanes

By Todd Woody

Hurricane Milton is barreling down an unusual eastern path as it nears a potentially catastrophic landfall in Florida, but such unpredictable impacts may become more common as the ocean rapidly warms, according to scientists.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Kirk, which formed in the North Atlantic, is taking a turn to the northeast and is expected to hit France on Wednesday as a rare post-tropical cyclone bringing heavy rain and wind.

Rosimar Rios-Berrios, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said Milton’s west-to-east track over central Florida is unexpected. Hurricanes usually form near Africa and move west before taking a turn to the north. Milton formed over Central America and is only the 18th hurricane since 1851 recorded as moving west to east through the Gulf of Mexico.

 

Andra Garner, who researches climate change impacts on tropical cyclones at Rowan University, said hurricanes veering toward Europe are slightly more common but they usually lose most of their strength before reaching the continent.

“As we warm the planet, it opens the possibility that we start seeing regions like Western Europe that might start experiencing more tropical cyclone impacts than we would’ve expected in the past,” said Garner, an associate professor of environmental science.

Scientists have linked high ocean temperatures to the rapid intensification of hurricanes—Milton’s wind speed increased 95 miles per hour in a single day—but Garner and Rios-Berrios said more research is needed to connect changes in the storms’ tracks to specific climate change impacts.

“There’s a lot of work being done on how climate change can impact tropical cyclones, but to my knowledge there is no evidence that climate change is changing the way that hurricanes move,” said Rios-Berrios.

A low pressure system in the upper atmosphere is pushing Milton through the Gulf of Mexico from the southwest to the northeast. “We expect these larger atmospheric steering patterns to drive hurricanes, and this setup is really driving Milton to the east,” said Garner. “We do know that as we warm the planet, we’re potentially seeing changes to things like some of our large-scale steering patterns like the jet stream.”

In the case of North Atlantic hurricanes, high ocean temperatures may not necessarily change their trajectories but allow them to retain their strength as they approach Europe. That increases the risk of loss of life and property damage in regions unaccustomed to preparing for or responding to devastating storms.

“We may see more of these very strong hurricanes and the unfortunate consequence is that the stronger they get, the harder it is for them to weaken,” said Rios-Berrios.

In August 2023, Hurricane Hilary, which originated in the Pacific Ocean, managed to reach California as a tropical storm and caused widespread flooding. The fact that Hilary was the first tropical storm to strike California in 84 years likely was more a result of its strength than its trajectory, according to Rios-Berrios.

“Some of these unusual tracks that we're seeing combined with the fact that we do know that hurricanes are becoming potentially more dangerous means that we need to be thinking about how to prepare for hurricanes in places we usually don’t see them,” said Garner.