Investors lean toward 'Trump trade' but say race too close to call yet

Global investors on Tuesday were closely watching key local races in the U.S. presidential election, with trades starting to lean toward pricing in a Donald Trump win, although many said it was still too early to tell.

U.S. stock futures and the dollar pushed higher while Treasury yields climbed and bitcoin rose, suggesting trades favoring a Trump win over Democrat Kamala Harris. 

"Our county by county analysis in key states suggests that Harris is lagging vs 2020, and on this basis it is logical that the market is starting to price a Trump win, as seen in bonds, and the dollar," said Jens Nordvig, CEO at analytical firm Exante.

 

But the contest remained undecided with critical battleground states unlikely to be called for hours or even days and some investors saying the so-called Trump trades lacked conviction  .

"Everyone's trying to take the few inches of data got right now and turn it into a mile," said Alex Morris, president and CIO of F/m Investments in Washington, DC.    Find special coverage on US Presidential Elections here 

The early results underscore how one of the most unusual - and tightest - presidential elections in modern U.S. history could have starkly different outcomes for tax and trade policy, as well as for U.S. institutions. 

The results could rattle assets globally and determine the outlook for U.S. debt, the strength of the dollar and a host of industries that make up the backbone of Corporate America. 

Leading into Tuesday, polls showed a dead heat between the former president and the current vice president. In line with expectations, Trump won 15 Republican-leaning states shortly before 10:00 pm ET, while Harris had captured seven Democratic states, Edison Research projected. 

But the battleground states that will decide the race may not report results until late Tuesday night or Wednesday, leaving investors scouring tallies from a handful of bellwether counties that may offer early clues about who will take the White House. 

For example, in Florida's Miami-Dade county, which voted Democratic during the previous two presidential elections, Trump had 55.4% of the vote versus Harris' 43.8%, with 87% of the votes counted, according to Edison Research. 

Harris, meanwhile, made progress in Wake County, North Carolina, with 78% of votes in, showing 64% for Harris. Beacon Policy Advisors in Washington had said ahead of the vote that a strong showing for Harris there could bode well for the vice president. 

Despite the uncertainty, popular election betting platforms leaned heavily in Trump's favor, while trades in assets whose prices could be influenced by Trump's pledges to raise tariffs, cut taxes and slash regulations showed growing bets on a Trump victory on Tuesday evening. 

Shares of Trump Media and Technology Group surged 10% in extended trade after a volatile day session, while the Mexican peso, which could be hit by tariffs, weakened about 2.5%. 

"There's not a lot of conviction in these moves; it seems like these are little pops," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. 

CONTESTED VOTE? 

With Congress also to be decided by wafer-thin margins, investors are wary of prolonged vote counts and contested results that could fuel volatility. The final outcome for both the presidency and Congress could take days to be known, analysts had warned. 

But several investors said early results suggested markets would have clarity faster than in 2020, when Joe Biden was announced the victor some four days after election night. 

"That's what markets have been most worried about, that there would be a long, drawn-out fight over who won," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. 

"Being able to get a decisive winner, whoever it is, is going to be good for the market and that's what's reflected, both in today's performance and also the futures right now." Joe Mazzola, head of derivatives and options trading at Charles Schwab, said the real test for markets would likely come on Wednesday morning as traders began to digest the results, adding that Tuesday was "the calm before the storm." Elsewhere on Wall Street, some bankers, investors and analysts said they were waiting out the count - in some cases anxiously - with friends and family, while traders were buckling in for a long night. 

Joe McCann, CEO of Asymmetric, a macro hedge fund that trades primarily in cryptocurrencies, said he has been tracking election news on several TV screens and monitoring market movements in his 50th floor Miami penthouse. 

"We have not left this room all day," he said. "We are expecting a volatile night."