LVMH sales slump in China rattles investors in luxury shares: Report

By Angelina Rascouet

Eighteen months ago, LVMH shares were trading at a record high and the group’s controlling shareholder, Bernard Arnault, was the world’s wealthiest person.
 

Fast forward to Wednesday and a slump in Chinese demand for Louis Vuitton bags, Dior gowns and other high-end fashion has wiped out more than €150 billion in LVMH market capitalization. Arnault’s wealth has been relegated to fifth place amid a downturn that’s dashed any prospect of a soft landing in luxury. 

The question for investors is how long the slump will last and whether the recovery will look anything like the good times that preceded it. 

For the first time since the second quarter of 2020, when the world went into lockdown, LVMH’s fashion and leather goods unit posted a drop in quarterly organic sales.

 

Since LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is generally considered a bellwether for the wider sector, its sales potentially presage weaker results from smaller rivals such as Brunello Cucinelli SpA, Hermes International SCA, Kering SA and L’Oreal SA, which will publish revenue updates this week and next. LVMH shares dropped as much as 7.5 per cent Wednesday to a two-year low, leading its competitors lower.

The geographical zone that includes China was the worst performer for LVMH, but the lack of growth in the US, the group’s second-largest region, shows the trouble is widespread. The company spooked investors with vague guidance amid risks ranging from Chinese economic growth to trade tensions.

“I’ve no idea,” said LVMH Chief Financial Officer Jean-Jacques Guiony on Tuesday, when asked about the outlook. “The visibility of our business is as good as yesterday’s sales. We’ve been through ups and downs. The only thing we know, when the business is bad, usually it’s good thereafter. It’s a cyclical business.”

Asia excluding Japan, the region that includes China, saw organic sales tumble 16 per cent in the third quarter, a bigger decline than expected. That was the third negative quarterly performance in a row.

Consumers in China in particular have curbed spending amid worries related to a weak property market and uncertain employment outlook. These concerns have prompted Chinese authorities to launch a stimulus package last month that’s yet to show a positive impact on consumers’ appetite.

“Consumer confidence in mainland China today is back in line with the all-time low reached during Covid,” Guiony said. It’s currently hard to assess the potential impact on demand of such measures, he added, but “it shows that they are taking the issue very seriously.” 

There are no signs the recent moves have changed the behavior of consumers, Citigroup said in a note, basing its conclusions on activity at a luxury mall in Eastern China during the Golden Week holiday this month. The mall saw a low-teens percentage sales decline during the holiday, with middle-class shoppers failing to turn up in numbers as they suffer the negative wealth effects of China’s weaker property prices, the note said.

Brands will now be looking at Singles’ Day, China’s biggest annual bargains extravaganza built around a Nov. 11 event that Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. popularized more than a decade ago.

On the other side of the world, Donald Trump, the Republican candidate for president of the US, has vowed to impose dramatic tariff increases that could further stoke trade tensions that are already hurting the outlook for Hennessy, the LVMH Cognac label, in China.

The downturn in China is increasing the relative importance of the US for LVMH. A year ago, the US represented 24 per cent of total revenue for the French conglomerate, with Asia excluding Japan generating 32 per cent. The numbers are now 25 per cent and 29 per cent respectively.

For Arnault, the slump LVMH faces means his personal wealth has also shrunk. As of Tuesday, his fortune stood at about $182 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. He’s the only one in the top five to have seen his wealth drop this year, by about $26 billion.