Not cloud seeding, climate change to blame for Dubai floods: Scientists

UAE got 254 mm of rainfall over 24 hours last week, more than it typically receives in an entire year

The flooding in Dubai last week prompted a debate on whether cloud-seeding may have been the cause for the unprecedented rains. Experts say no to this theory, bringing attention to climate change.

Dubai floods: What happened?

The storm initially struck Oman before intensifying and hitting the United Arab Emirates (UAE), leading to power outages and disrupting air travel. Reports said that at least 20 individuals lost their lives in Oman due to the heavy rainfall. Government offices and schools closed for several days in the UAE.

A record-breaking 254 millimetres (10 inches) of rainfall was recorded in Al Ain, a city bordering Oman. This marked the highest amount of rainfall recorded within a 24-hour period, surpassing the average rainfall witnessed by the country in an entire year. 

 

The UAE and the wider Arabian Peninsula have arid desert climates and rainfall is rare. The region's lack of adequate drainage systems exacerbated the impact of heavy rainfall, resulting in flooded roads and infrastructure damage.
 

Cloud seeding speculations in Dubai

Following the deluge, speculation emerged regarding the potential role of cloud seeding in influencing the heavy rainfall. Cloud seeding is a process in which chemicals are introduced into clouds to stimulate precipitation, typically employed in regions facing water scarcity concerns. The UAE, situated in one of the world's hottest and driest regions, has been at the forefront of cloud-seeding efforts to increase precipitation since the 1980s.

Managed by the Emirates’ National Centre of Meteorology (NCM), the UAE’s Rain Enhancement Programme (UAEREP) has developed its own seeding agent, known as nano material, composed of fine salt coated with titanium oxide.

However, experts suggest that the significant rainfall was likely due to a conventional weather system that was exacerbated by climate change.
 

Climate change caused 24-hr rainfall in Dubai

According to several global media reports, Esraa Alnaqbi, a senior forecaster at NCM, said that a combination of low-pressure systems in the upper atmosphere and surface-level pressure fluctuations created conditions conducive to the formation of intense thunderstorms.

The NCM also confirmed that no cloud-seeding operations were being conducted during the storm or before the deluge in Dubai and neighbouring cities.

Climate experts believe that rising global temperatures, attributed to human-induced climate change, are contributing to more frequent and intense extreme weather events worldwide.

According to a report by The Guardian newspaper in the United Kingdom, climate scientists raised concerns about the public attributing extreme weather directly to weather manipulation practices instead recognising them as severe impacts of climate change.

“Rainfall from thunderstorms, like the ones seen in UAE in recent days, sees a particularly strong increase with warming. This is because convection, which is the strong updraft in thunderstorms, strengthens in a warmer world,” Dim Coumou, a professor in climate extremes at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, told news agency Reuters.

Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London, also told Reuters that cloud seeding could not be responsible for the volume of rain witnessed in Dubai.

“Cloud seeding can’t create clouds from nothing," Otto said.