South Africa heads closer to coalition govt as ANC's vote share drops

Incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa's African National Congress (ANC) party, which has ruled South Africa since the advent of democracy 30 years ago, is likely to lose its majority after voters overwhelmingly turned to alternative parties in the just-concluded polls, with a coalition government now most likely.

General elections were held in South Africa on May 29 to elect a new 400-member National Assembly as well as the provincial legislature in each of the nine provinces.

As vote counting continued at lunchtime on Friday, the ANC received only 42% of the confirmed 62% of votes cast. The Democratic Alliance was next with 23%.

 

Analysts had earlier predicted that the ANC would not get more than 42%.

The ANC has been worst affected by the emergence of the Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party formed by former president Jacob Zuma, who was ousted by the ANC after huge public outcries about his alleged role in enabling massive looting of state resources.

In Zuma's home province of KwaZulu-Natal, once a bastion of the ANC, MK has already garnered 44% of the vote, with the ANC falling massively to 19%.

Despite MK's success, Zuma has been precluded from serving as a Member of Parliament by the country's highest judicial institution, the Constitutional Court, because of an earlier jail sentence imposed on Zuma for contempt of court.

Insiders said that negotiations had already started with some of the smaller parties as coalitions appeared to be the only route now, with no party likely to secure the 50% plus one needed to be the governing party.

As the seats in the 400-member National Assembly directly reflect the proportion of votes, some sort of a post-poll agreement between parties to get over 50 per cent of the seats to form a government looks very likely.

At the provincial level, the Democratic Alliance, which has ruled in the Western Cape Province for the past 15 years, appeared set to continue its dominance for the next five years after it got 53% of the vote so far.

In the other eight provinces of the country, the ANC will likely only retain a majority in three Limpopo (75%), Eastern Cape (66%) and North West Province (60%). In the Free State, it currently has 54% and in Mpumalanga 50%, so the chances of it getting a majority there are also possible from the remaining votes.

The ANC took its biggest battering in the economic hub of Gauteng province, where the electorate gave the party a huge thumbs down with just 35% of the vote so far. The opposition Democratic Alliance got 28%, the Economic Freedom Fighters 12% and MK 10%.

Analysts said most of the MK votes probably came from disgruntled former ANC supporters who were fed up with the corruption within the party ranks and the poor service delivery across the country, including massive electricity shortages, water disruptions, and poor road conditions, even in urban areas.

ANC deputy secretary-general Nomvula Mokonyane told local media at the Independent Electoral Commission's (IEC) Results Centre that the party's national executive committee would meet later on Friday to assess the election results. The ANC is also expected to address the nation on Saturday when almost all the results are expected to be in.

The IEC earlier said that the final results were likely to be declared by Sunday.

The IEC's earlier optimism that it expected a 66% turnout from the 26 million registered voters appeared to be an optimistic projection, as around 56% of voters were reflected in the 62% of confirmed results so far.

For the entirety of South Africa's 30-year democratic history since the ANC's victory in the 1994 election, officially marking the end of apartheid and inaugurating Nelson Mandela as the nation's first Black president, the party has maintained an undisputed majority. Its enduring dominance in politics signifies a significant milestone for Africa's most advanced economy, making any potential dip below the 50% mark a momentous shift.