Speaker Mike Johnson faces crucial vote as new US Congress convenes

The new Congress has opened with one major task at hand the election of the House speaker.

Newly-elected lawmakers are in place at the US Capitol but current Speaker Mike Johnson's weak grip on the gavel threatens not only his own survival but President-elect Donald Trump's ambitious agenda of tax cuts and mass deportations as Republicans sweep to power in Washington. 

With opposition from his own GOP colleagues, Johnson arrived with outward confidence after working into the night to sway hardline holdouts. A flop by Johnson could throw Monday's congressional certification of Trump's 2024 election victory into turmoil without a House speaker. Even backing from Trump himself, usually a sure bet for Republicans, was no guarantee Johnson will stay in power.

 

"We don't have time for drama, Johnson said as he walked into the Capitol.

The Louisiana Republican said the speaker election is not just about one person but about moving forward with the America First agenda".

And he had a renewed nod of support from Trump who told the speaker, "Good luck.

A win for Mike today will be a big win for the Republican Party, Trump posted on social media.

What was once a ceremonial day with newly elected lawmakers arriving to be sworn into office, often with family, friends and children in tow, has evolved into a high-stakes vote for the office of House speaker, among the most powerful elected positions in Washington.

While the Senate is able to convene on its own and has already elected party leaders Sen. John Thune as the Republican majority leader and Sen. Chuck Schumer for the Democratic minority the House must first elect its speaker, a role required by the Constitution, second in the line of succession to the president.

Congress has been here before, when it took Republicans nearly a week and 15 rounds of voting to elect Kevin McCarthy as speaker in 2023, a spectacle unseen in modern times. McCarthy was then dumped by his party, a historic first, but he was also part of a long list of GOP speakers chased to early exits.

The stakes are higher this year as Trump prepares to return to the White House with the House and Senate in GOP control and promising to deliver big on a 100-day agenda.

He's the one that can win right now, Trump said about Johnson at a New Year's Eve party that drew other GOP leaders to his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida.

Trump endorsed Johnson but also said others are very good, too, a nod to Make America Great Again allies in the president-elect's orbit.

Johnson has been working diligently to prevent defeat, spending New Year's Day at Mar-a-Lago as he positions himself alongside Trump. The speaker often portrays himself as the quarterback who will be executing the political plays called by the coach, the president-elect.

"We have to stay unified," Johnson said on Fox Business late Thursday.

Johnson said he thinks he will lose perhaps only a single detractor, and hopes to win the speakership on the first round of balloting. He said he hasn't yet asked Trump to make calls to the holdouts. My conversations with my colleagues are going great."  But Johnson also warned that without a House speaker there would be a "constitutional crisis" heading into January 6, when Congress by law is required to count the electoral votes for president, weeks before Trump is set to be inaugurated January 20.

We don't have any time to waste, and I think that everybody recognises that, he said.

Johnson commands one of the slimmest majorities in modern times, having lost seats in the November election. That leaves him relying on almost every Republican for support in the face of Democratic opposition, though the typical 218 majority needed could shift with absences and others voting only "present".

Heading into Friday he did not have the full support needed.

Texas GOP Rep. Chip Roy is among the most notable holdouts, an unflinching member of the Freedom Caucus who lashed into Republican leadership's handling of the year-end spending bill for failing to cut spending and adhere to House rules.

Something MUST change, Roy posted on social media. He said he remains undecided on the speaker's vote for Johnson, but added my desire is to give him grace" in hopes they can deliver on the GOP agenda.

One almost certain hard no is Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., but other far-right Republicans, including some who helped topple McCarthy, have kept their views close.

"There's a lot of discontent, said Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., as lawmakers left for the Christmas holiday.

What's unclear is what other concessions Johnson can make to win support. Two years ago, McCarthy handed out prime favours that appeared to only weaken his hold on power.

Already, Johnson has clawed back one of those changes, with a new House rule pushed by centrist conservatives that would require at least nine members of the majority party on any resolution to oust the speaker raising the threshold McCarthy had lowered to just one.

I think the holdouts are going to have to realise that, listen, Trump is right all the time," said Rep. Troy Nehls, R-Texas, exiting the speaker's office late Thursday. Just know that Trump is right all the time, it'll help you make a decision real simple.

In many ways, Johnson has no choice but to endure political hazing by his colleagues, as they remind him who has leverage in their lopsided relationship. He was a last-ditch choice for the office, rising from the back bench once other leaders failed in the aftermath of McCarthy's ouster.

Democrats expected to cast votes for party leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York.

Jeffries has said Democrats will not help save Johnson, as they have in the past with their votes when he faced a threat of removal.

The speaker's election is set to dominate the opening of the new Congress, which also brings a roster of history-making members, as the Senate expects to quickly begin hearings on Trump's nominees for top Cabinet and administrative positions.

In the Senate, two Black women Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland will be sworn in, the first time in the nation's history two Black women senators will serve at the same time.

Sen.-elect Andy Kim of New Jersey also is making history as the first Korean American to join the chamber.

In the House, Sarah McBride is the first openly transgender person in the Congress.

And Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, who recently suffered a fall overseas and underwent hip replacement surgery, will make her own return to Washington, a reminder of the power she wielded when Democrats last held the majority.

But the pomp of the day may dim if the speakership election slogs into multiple rounds of balloting.

I hope that we can just vote for him on that first ballot, and then go move on to the business of the people, said Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Ariz., who backs Johnson.

Said Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., "A large portion of that will be up to Donald Trump.