Trump's Nato push: Higher defence spending, continued aid to Ukraine

Trump plans to push Nato allies to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP while continuing aid to Ukraine, marking a significant shift in his foreign policy approach

Donald Trump’s foreign policy team has informed European officials that the incoming US President will push Nato member states to increase their defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP. Despite his campaign rhetoric to curtail support for Ukraine, Trump plans to maintain US military aid to Kyiv, reported The Financial Times citing individuals familiar with recent discussions.

 

This shift in Trump’s approach marks a significant development in his policies toward Europe and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, as outlined in meetings with senior European officials earlier this month.

 

Campaign rhetoric vs policy intentions

 

During his presidential campaign, Trump alarmed European allies with vows to cut off aid to Ukraine, pressure Kyiv into peace talks, and withdraw US support for Nato allies who failed to meet defence spending targets. These statements left many European capitals questioning Washington’s future role in the region.

 

 

However, Trump’s apparent commitment to continuing US military supplies to Ukraine has been met with cautious optimism. “This is a boost for allies worried about supporting Ukraine without US backing,” said one individual briefed on the discussions.

 

Nato spending target: Doubling down

 

Trump’s demand for Nato countries to double their current 2 per cent spending target to 5 per cent of GDP could have far-reaching implications. Currently, only 23 of Nato’s 32 member states meet the existing 2 per cent benchmark. 

 

Two sources familiar with the matter suggested Trump might accept a compromise at 3.5 per cent, tying increased defencespending to more favourable US trade terms. “We are talking about 3 per cent or more for [Nato’s June summit in] The Hague,” said one European official briefed on Trump’s thinking.

 

Nato leaders are already considering raising the spending target to 3 per cent at the June summit, but many member nations face difficult fiscal decisions to meet these demands.

 

Comparisons to US defence spending

 

The US is projected to allocate approximately 3.1 per cent of its GDP to defence in 2024. During Trump’s previous term, Pentagon spending peaked at 3.4 per cent of GDP in 2020. These figures highlight the scale of Trump’s proposed demands for Nato allies.

 

European leaders scramble for clarity

 

Meanwhile, key European leaders, including those from France, Germany, the UK, Italy, and Poland, convened with Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Brussels on Wednesday to discuss potential shifts in defence policies under Trump.

 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also held a telephone conversation with Trump during an EU summit on Thursday.Speaking afterward, Scholz expressed cautious optimism, stating he was “quite confident that the US and Europe will continue their support to Ukraine.”

 

Although Trump continues to oppose Ukraine’s Nato membership and advocates for an immediate end to the conflict, his team has suggested that US weapons supplies to Kyiv could support a “peace through strength” strategy after a ceasefire. This approach aims to ensure stability while reinforcing deterrence.