If Donald Trump triumphs over Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election, the 78-year-old Republican would make a historic return to the White House, becoming the first individual with a felony conviction to win a US election. However, a defeat could leave Trump facing a wave of legal challenges and the potential for imprisonment, according to reports from US media.
During his previous presidency term from 2016 to 2020, Trump became the first president to face impeachment on two occasions: first for withholding military aid to pressure Ukraine into investigating his political adversaries, and later for inciting a violent insurrection at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, following his defeat by Democrat Joe Biden.
Trump biographer Gwenda Blair told The Guardian that he has positioned himself as someone who evades consequences, mentioning, “He branded himself as the guy who gets away with it. He is facing a lot of moments of reckoning. He could go to jail. He could end up considerably less wealthy than he is. No matter what happens, and no matter whether he wins or loses, there will be a reckoning over his health. Death, ill health, dementia – those are things even he can’t escape.”
Should he win the election and resume his role as president, Trump has pledged to dismiss Jack Smith, the special counsel responsible for two federal cases against him, “within two seconds”. Currently, Trump is embroiled in four criminal cases, any of which could derail the prospects of other potential candidates, according to reports.
Here’s a look at significant cases he faces and how they could be influenced by the results of the 2024 election.
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Stormy Daniels hush money case
In May, Donald Trump was convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to a hush-money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels, making him the first former president to receive a felony conviction. Sentencing is scheduled for November 26, just three weeks after Election Day, having been postponed twice to allow Trump’s legal team more time to prepare. Should he be sentenced, his lawyers plan to contest the decision, suggesting that a victory in the election could bolster his appeal.
National Election interference case
The former president faces charges of conspiracy to defraud the US for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2020 election results. His lawyers argue that he is protected from such allegations due to presidential immunity. Following his loss to Biden, Trump led the ‘Stop the Steal’ rally that preceded the violent events at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. If he reclaims the presidency, reports indicate that this case might be dismissed.
Georgia Election interference case
In this Fulton County case, Donald Trump is charged with conspiracy related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. An appeal is set for December, and a loss in the election could prompt a trial date. However, if Trump wins, delays in the trial are expected. Recently, a Georgia court dismissed some charges against Trump and his associates linked to these election interference efforts.
Classified documents case
In July, a US District Judge dismissed criminal charges against Trump for allegedly misleading federal investigators about sensitive classified materials retained after his presidency. Although the special counsel has appealed, the case may proceed even if Trump is elected again. Nonetheless, there’s a possibility that the special counsel’s office could be disbanded.
Other legal challenges
Several cases will remain unaffected regardless of the election outcome, including pending civil judgments totaling around $500 million against Trump from a fraud case in New York and an $88 million award to writer E Jean Carroll, who accused him of sexual assault and defamation. Trump also faces multiple civil suits related to the January 6 insurrection.
Legal eligibility of Trump’s candidacy
The US law stipulates that candidates must be at least 35 years old, natural-born citizens, and residents of the US for 14 years to run for president. There are no federal prohibitions against individuals with criminal records contesting elections, although some state laws apply to local offices. Critics reference Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, suggesting Trump may be ineligible due to his alleged engagement in insurrection after swearing to uphold the Constitution. However, the enforcement of this provision would likely require congressional action.
Legally, Trump could be eligible for the presidency even if he is behind bars, as the Constitution does not explicitly prevent it. However, under the 25th Amendment, he could be declared unable to perform his duties, transferring power to the Vice President — a scenario that would necessitate a majority decision from his Cabinet. Furthermore, the President has the authority to pardon federal offenses, except in cases of impeachment.