US elections 2024: How Kamala Harris can clinch victory with 270 votes

US presidential elections: Kamala Harris remains within striking distance of the 2024 presidency if she secures 270 electoral votes. But she must win key swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan

Republican candidate Donald Trump has strengthened his position in the 2024 US presidential race, now securing 230 electoral votes. This growing lead further complicates Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of winning, thereby diminishing prospects of a Democratic government return.

US polls 2024: Possibility of a Harris win with key swing states

Despite Trump’s lead, Harris could still secure the presidency if she wins pivotal swing states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. A win in these states would allow her to achieve the essential 270 electoral college votes, a slim path to victory as the race intensifies.

US presidential elections: Battle in key states

The competition remains fierce, with both candidates closely matched in electoral votes. However, Trump holds an advantage in the key battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, leading with over 50 per cent of the vote in each state. This momentum complicates Harris’ pathway, leaving her fewer opportunities to claim these critical states.

 

US polls: States won by Kamala Harris so far

Vice President Kamala Harris has won New York and Wyoming, securing 28 and three electoral votes, respectively. Additionally, Harris has won in Maryland, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island. The outcome of the elections remains heavily influenced by results from seven key swing states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia — where vote counting may take several days to conclude.

US polls: Trump’s first swing state win in North Carolina

Trump has won North Carolina, a critical swing state, capturing 50.9 per cent of the vote. This win poses an additional hurdle for Harris, who needs to win nearly all remaining swing states that President Joe Biden captured in 2020.

Biden’s 2020 swing state victories and their significance

In 2020, Biden secured a victory by winning six of seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Only North Carolina went to Trump, with Biden winning nationally by 51.3 per cent. This narrow margin in Pennsylvania was pivotal in pushing Biden above the 270-vote threshold.

US polls: Role of swing states in electoral college votes

The Electoral College, composed of 538 votes, requires a candidate to earn at least 270 to win the presidency. Key states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin often play decisive roles due to their electoral vote allocations and swing potential.

US elections 2024: Polls show a close race

Recent national polls reveal a tight race, with Harris and Trump nearly tied across swing states. While some surveys give Harris a slight edge, others depict a deadlock, making the outcome unpredictable. Polls by Reuters/Ipsos and CBS/YouGov show Harris ahead by a slim margin, whereas surveys by The New York Times, Siena College, and CNN suggest a neck-and-neck competition.

 

[With agency inputs]