US elections: What Trump's win means for Israel-Hamas, Russia-Ukraine wars?

Donald Trump's return to the presidency introduces a shift in US foreign policy, favouring Israel's military objectives and proposing negotiation-focused approaches to the Ukraine conflict

Donald Trump’s second victory in the US presidential race brings new dimensions to the conflicts in both Israel and Gaza, as well as the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.

 

Trump’s foreign policy during his first term leaned towards a preference for reducing US involvement in overseas conflicts and prioritising American interests, which has shaped his stance on both the Middle East and Eastern Europe. His victory marks a significant shift from his predecessor’s approach, creating uncertainties about the US’s role in these ongoing conflicts.

 

Support for Israel in the Israel-Hamas war 

During his campaign, Trump strongly condemned Hamas for its October 2023 attack on Israel, which resulted in more than 1,100 Israeli casualties. He has consistently backed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s actions and urged him to secure a decisive victory over Hamas. Unlike his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, who voiced concerns over the impact on Palestinian civilians, Trump’s position has been unreservedly supportive of Israel’s approach, with an emphasis on Israel’s right to pursue its goals without restrictions.

 

 

This stance suggests that Trump’s presidency could encourage Israel to intensify its military actions in Gaza. Experts, including Brian Katulis from the Middle East Institute, warn that Trump’s return could embolden Israel to move forward aggressively without international checks. Trump’s approach contrasts with the Biden administration, which had at times slowed weapon deliveries to Israel in response to civilian casualties. His previous decisions, such as moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and supporting Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, indicate his alignment with Israel, signalling that under Trump, the US may adopt a more unwavering position in its support.

 

Trump’s take on the Russia-Ukraine war 

Throughout his election campaign, Trump declared he could end the Russia-Ukraine war within a day, envisioning himself as a negotiator who could broker a peace settlement. While Trump provided no specific details, his Vice President, JD Vance, suggested that such a settlement would involve creating a demilitarised zone along current lines, meaning Ukraine would lose control of key regions, including Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia. This proposal contradicts Ukrainian resistance to any territorial concessions, indicating a potential conflict in priorities if Trump presses for such a resolution.

 

Under the Biden administration, Ukraine has received substantial military aid, including advanced weapons systems critical to its defence. However, Trump has previously expressed scepticism about US support for Ukraine, questioning the rationale behind the extensive aid. His scepticism is reflected in past actions; during his first term, he temporarily withheld aid to Ukraine, sparking political controversy. This history suggests that Trump’s pragmatic view of foreign involvement may lead him to reduce or even halt US aid to Ukraine, potentially weakening Ukraine's defence against Russian offensives.

 

Future of US foreign policy: Restraint or concessions? 

Trump’s approach to foreign conflicts has been characterised by a focus on deal-making and an ‘America first’ philosophy, prioritising American interests above alliances or global interventions. If this continues into his second term, the US’s role in international conflicts may be more restrained, with Trump likely to advocate for negotiated solutions, even if they require concessions. For Israel, this could mean increased support without interference, while for Ukraine, it might involve concessions that could be strategically detrimental.

 

Trump’s return to the presidency introduces a shift in US foreign policy, favouring Israel’s military objectives and proposing negotiation-focused approaches to the Ukraine conflict. The full implications of this shift will unfold as Trump’s administration develops its strategies.