US job growth seen picking up in Aug; unemployment rate easing to 4.2%

'The economy is going through a transition; it's slowly kind of bending under the weight of the high interest rates,' said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College

U.S. employment increased less than expected in August, but a drop in the jobless rate to 4.2% suggested an orderly labor market slowdown continued and probably did not warrant a big interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month.

 

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 89,000 rise in July, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by 160,000 jobs after a previously reported 114,000 gain in July. Estimates ranged from 100,000 to 245,000 jobs.

 

The smaller-than-expected increase in payrolls likely does not signal a deterioration in labor market conditions.

 

 

August payrolls have a tendency to initially print weaker relative to the consensus estimate and recent trend before being revised higher later. Hiring typically picks up in the education sector, which is anticipated by the model that the government uses to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data.

 

The start of the new school year, however, varies across the country, which can throw off the so-called seasonal factors. The initial August payrolls counts have been revised higher in 10 of the last 13 years. Layoffs remain at historic low levels.

 

The drop in the unemployment rate followed four straight monthly increases, which had lifted it near a three-year high of 4.3% in July. Early on Friday, financial markets saw a roughly 43% probability of a half-point rate cut at the Fed's Sept. 17-18 policy meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

The odds of a 25 basis point rate reduction were around 57%.

 

Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% in August after rising 0.2% in July. Wages increased 3.8% year-on-year after advancing 3.6% in July. Still-solid wage growth continues to underpin the economy through consumer spending.

 

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