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By Reade Pickert
Vacancies at US employers dropped in February to the lowest since May 2021, suggesting a cooling in labor demand in some industries but still indicative of a job market that’s too tight for the Federal Reserve.
The number of available positions decreased to 9.9 million from a downwardly revised 10.6 million a month earlier, the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed Tuesday. Vacancies were below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
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The figures, which can be volatile on a monthly basis, suggest labor supply and demand are moving into better balance. Still, further progress is needed — particularly in the service sector — to help alleviate wage pressures. Enduring strength in the job market remains a key hurdle for the Fed as it seeks to bring inflation down to its 2% goal.
The JOLTS report showed that the so-called quits rate, which measures voluntary job leavers as a share of total employment, edged up to 2.6%. That equates to about 4 million Americans.
The ratio of openings to unemployed people slid to 1.67 in February, the lowest since November 2021, from almost 1.9 in the prior month. In the firm labor market that preceded the pandemic, that ratio was about 1.2.
Fed officials watch that ratio closely and have pointed to the elevated number of job openings as a reason why the central bank may be able to cool the labor market — and therefore inflation — without an ensuing surge in unemployment.
By Industry
The largest declines in vacancies were in business services, healthcare and social assistance, and transportation, warehousing and utilities. Openings rose in construction and recreation and entertainment. While hiring eased, layoffs also declined.
Looking ahead, the recent turmoil in the banking sector is expected to prompt lenders to further tighten credit conditions, something that’s expected to curb consumer spending as well as stifle business investment. Given companies tend to freeze hiring before initiating layoffs, the JOLTS report will be a key indicator of labor market strength in coming months.
The data precede Friday’s monthly jobs report, which is currently forecast to show employers added nearly a quarter of a million workers in March. Economists are expecting the unemployment rate to hold at a historically low 3.6% and for average hourly earnings to rise firmly.
Some economists have questioned the reliability of the JOLTS statistics given the survey’s low response rate. By year-end, the response rate for JOLTS had fallen to about 31%, roughly half the rate just three years earlier.
