Why are young Chinese ditching marriage? Will it impact the economy?

In the first nine months of 2024, 4.74 million Chinese couples registered marriages, down 16.6 per cent from 5.69 million in the same period last year

China is on track to record its lowest marriage rate since official records began, signalling a deepening demographic crisis that has major implications for the country’s economic future. Despite aggressive government efforts to encourage marriages and boost birth rates, data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs shows that the trend continues to decline.

 

In the first nine months of 2024, only 4.74 million Chinese couples registered their marriages, a sharp drop of 16.6 per cent from the 5.69 million recorded in the same period last year. This downturn is part of a consistent decline from a 2013 peak of over 13 million marriages, highlighting predictions by demographic experts that 2024 will set a new low, falling below the 2022 record of 6.83 million.

 

 

The ramifications of falling marriage rates – and by extension, plummeting birth rates – present a significant challenge for Beijing as it confronts a shrinking workforce and rapidly aging population, both of which threaten to stall economic growth. After two consecutive years of population decline and a birth rate that hit its lowest since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949, China’s demographic worries are intensifying.

 

China’s population woes are compounded by social norms and regulations that make it challenging for unmarried couples to have children. To reverse the trend, the government has rolled out measures like financial incentives and social campaigns, aimed at encouraging young people to marry and have children. High-profile initiatives have included blind dating events, mass weddings, and attempts to reduce the “bride price” – a tradition where the groom pays the bride’s family, which can be a prohibitive cost for many men, especially in rural areas.

 

Since 2022, the Family Planning Association has launched pilot programmes to promote a “new-era marriage and childbearing culture,” encouraging dozens of cities to instil the “social value of childbearing” and urge young people to marry and start families. However, these measures have yet to resonate with many young adults facing economic hardships. High youth unemployment, rising living costs, and limited social welfare support amid an economic slowdown have driven many to delay – or even abandon – thoughts of marriage and family life altogether.

 

A more profound cultural shift is also at play, particularly among young women who are increasingly well-educated, financially independent, and unwilling to settle for traditional roles within a marriage. Many face workplace discrimination and bear societal expectations to shoulder domestic responsibilities, leading to a growing disillusionment with marriage.

 

Policies aimed at curbing divorce are further straining the institution of marriage. In 2021, China introduced a 30-day ‘cooling-off’ period for couples filing for divorce, a move criticised for making it more challenging for women to leave unhappy or abusive relationships. Official data from the first three quarters of this year shows 1.96 million couples filed for divorce, only a marginal decrease of 6,000 from the previous year.

 

China’s challenges echo broader struggles seen in countries like Japan and South Korea, where governments have also attempted – with limited success – to boost marriage and birth rates through financial incentives, cash subsidies, and expanded childcare support.

 

The unyielding downward trend in marriages and births is partly a result of decades of strict population control policies, which reduced the number of young people of marriageable age. Despite the end of the one-child policy in 2015 and a relaxation to allow three children per family in 2021, the marriage and birth rates have not rebounded.

 

As Beijing grapples with this demographic crisis, the question remains: Can policy incentives reverse deeply ingrained social shifts? For now, the numbers tell a clear story – China’s young population is increasingly choosing independence over tradition, and the implications for its future are monumental.