 "Rains seen below normal for 2nd straight year")
The forecast is with a model error of give or take five per cent. LPA is the average rainfall the country received between 1951 and 2000, estimated to be 89 cm. In 2014, rains were about 12 per cent below normal, lowering kharif foodgrain output by about nine million tonnes (mt) year-on-year. The arrivals of the rains was also delayed by more than 5 days.
North and central India are expected to get less than normal rains this year, while it might be normal in peninsular India, IMD said.
More From This Section
Below normal rains on the back of huge losses to the standing rabi crops due to hailstorm could aggravate the crisis in agriculture and derail the Centre’s efforts to rein in food prices, particularly of pulses, oilseeds and vegetables. The ministry of agriculture estimates that rabi crops in around 9.38 million hectares have been damaged in the unseasonal rains, which may lower wheat output by five per cent from a near record 95.8 million tonnes estimated in February.
ALSO READ: Private weather agency predicts normal rains
According to the monetary policy framework agreement, the Reserve Bank of India has to bring down Consumer Price Index-based inflation to below six per cent by January.
India’s agriculture growth, which dropped to 1.1 per cent in 2014-15 from a high of 3.7 per cent in 2013-14 in the new gross domestic product (GDP) series, might remain weak in 2015-16 if the kharif harvest drops.
D K Joshi, chief economist at CRISIL, said in a report a second straight year of weak monsoon would decrease the efficacy of India’s irrigation ecosystem and hit agricultural output and farmers. “According to our calculations, a deficient monsoon, if it comes true, will shave off 50 basis points from our GDP forecast of 7.9 per cent for fiscal 2016,” Joshi said.
The southwest monsoon not only has a direct bearing on kharif harvest but also affects the rabi production, as more than half of India’s total arable land does not have regular irrigation.
Almost half of India’s total annual foodgrain production of 250-260 mt comes from the kharif season. Paddy, cotton, soyabean, jute, groundnut, etc, are produced during this season, sowing for which starts around June and the crop is harvested from September onwards.
“The El Niño conditions might prevail during the monsoon season and the probability of rains being excess is negligible,” Science and Technology Minister Harsh Vardhan said.
According to IMD’s classification, rainfall below 90 per cent of LPA is considered deficient, between 90 and 96 per cent below normal, between 96 and 104 per cent normal and between 104 and 110 per cent above normal.
The met office said the probability of the southwest monsoon being below normal was 35 per cent, while of it being normal was 28 per cent. The chance of rainfall this year being deficient is 33 per cent.
In other words, according to the first forecast, there is more than 50 per cent chance rainfall in 2015 will be less than normal. In the past, El Niño had struck Indian monsoon 14 times, of which rains in eight years were below normal.
The southwest monsoon in 2014 was below normal at 88 per cent of LPA. The met office in its first forecast had predicted rains to be around 95 per cent of LPA.
“We will alert the Cabinet secretary, the Prime Minister’s Office and also the ministry of agriculture on this but the actual impact of low rains on kharif production will depend on the distribution of the rains,” Harsh Vardhan said.
Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh said the government was fully prepared to meet any eventuality and had already prepared contingency plans for 100 districts.
Religare Research said in a report a second consecutive year of low rains might push up prices of farm commodities that have already shown a bullish trend this year.
Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings, however, said it was too early to assess the impact of below-normal rains on farm production as things might change between now and June, the actual arrival date.
Laxman Singh Rathore, director general, IMD, said the recent bout of heavy unseasonal rains caused primarily due to western disturbance seemed to have made no impact on the poor southwest monsoon forecast. “The good part is because of these unseasonal rains, the reservoir levels are at a comfortable position,” Rathore added.
Fertiliser Association of India Chairman Rakesh Kapur said low rains could have an impact on fertiliser demand in the country as well.
Last week, private weather forecaster Skymet predicted the southwest monsoon this year would be normal at 102 per cent of LPA. It has discounted any impact of El Niño.