Weekly economic indicators: More shoppers stepping out, road traffic higher

High-frequency indicators show signs of gains amid talk of second wave

Retail outlets saw more footfalls and more vehicles hit the roads as people continued to move around even as there has been talk of a second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray warned of a second wave as cases crossed one million in the state. Weekly economic indicators show sign of higher activity. Business Standard tracks pollution levels, railway freight, power generation and traffic data. It gives a current picture of the economy ahead of official macroeconomic data, which is often released with a lag. The railway data is as of Saturday, September 12. Google’s data appears with a lag and is as of September 8. All other data is as of Sunday September 13.

Mumbai traffic has been on the rise even as the state grapples with higher numbers. It was at half of 2019 numbers in mid-August, shows data from location technology firm TomTom International. The latest data shows that it is down only 35 per cent from 2019, a steady gain over the last month. New Delhi continues to show a higher traffic recovery than Mumbai (see chart 1).

Source: TomTom International
Note: Shows change based on weighted averages derived from hourly data. Each week starts on Monday and ends on Sunday

Nitrogen dioxide levels are the outcome of vehicular emissions and industrial activity. Emissions in Delhi are down less than six per cent. Mumbai’s Bandra locality data show levels are 90 per cent below 2019 numbers (see chart 2,3).

Source: Central Pollution Control Board

Source: Central Pollution Control Board

People do seem to be stepping out to retail and recreation spots. Search engine Google aggregates anonymised data on visits to such locations. National numbers are at their highest since March-end. Grocery and pharmacy visits are higher than pre-Covid times (see chart 4).

Another strong indicator of higher activity is the fact that the railways are carrying more goods than before. In fact, freight quantity and earnings are higher than in 2019. Similar gains were seen in the previous week.  But the percentage gains are in double-digit figures for the current week, compared to single-digit earlier. Freight quantity is up over 15 per cent (see chart 5).

Power generation data has also been positive. The sum total of all power generated in India is higher now than it was in 2019. A seven-day rolling average was considered. It had dropped by almost 30 per cent in April as the lockdown to control the Covid-19 pandemic took hold (see chart 6).

The relative recovery in the September quarter comes June gross domestic product showed  record contraction. The GDP fell by 23.9 per cent. This was the biggest fall since quarterly data began to be made available in 1996.