The India story: Population explosion or declining fertility rate?

India has become most populous nation. But with fertility rate slowing, there are concerns that it may grow old before getting rich. The second part of the series explores demographic challenges

Prominent voices from political, business, social, and cultural fields have highlighted various aspects of India's population in recent months. While one leading figure from India Inc expressed concern over the burgeoning population, others were worried about the declining fertility rate. Their views reflected the different dimensions of population dynamics in India that have emerged and will shape the remaining years of this century. 

If we look at the first decade of this century, population growth declined to 17.70 per cent during 2001-2011 from 21.54 per cent in the preceding decade, according to the Census. This is to say that marginally fewer people were added in the 2001-2011 decade than in the previous one. In fact, this growth was the lowest in six decades. Before this, the growth was lower, at 13.31 per cent, back in 1951. 

This was so because India’s total fertility rate (TFR) declined to 2.2 during the decade, from 2.5 in the previous ten years. This 

meant that each couple had an average of 2.2 children compared to 2.5 in 1991-2001.  

 

Falling fertility rate points to eventual decline in India’s population 

The fertility rate was slightly above the replacement level of 2.1, which is the rate at which the population stabilises over time.

Data from the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS) shows that the total fertility rate in the country remained at 2.2 in 2015-16 – the same as it was in 2011. However, it declined to 2, below the replacement level, in 2019-21. This indicates that the country's population will eventually decline. Yet, projections by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) suggest that India's population will not fall before 2062, even though growth rate will be below one per cent a year from 2025 onwards. 

Despite UN DESA's projection of India's population growth rate declining to 0.9 per cent in 2025, it would still result in an addition of 13.1 million people that year. This is based on India’s population, which stood at 1.46 billion as of December 16 (according to Worldometer, which put China’s population at 1.42 billion). 

This increase would be significantly lower than the 18.2 million people added annually, on average, during the 2001-2011 decade. Even so, in 2025, India would still add around half of Australia's population, which Worldometer shows stood at 26.8 million as of December 16, 2024. If this is the case, why are prominent figures urging people to have more children?

There are two reasons for this. 

 

One: Since India's TFR fell below the replacement level in 2019-21, there are concerns that the country could soon grow old, replacing its current demographic dividend. 

In 2024, 68.7 per cent of India's population was aged between 15 and 64, according to UN DESA. This demographic dividend has not been fully reaped due to a lack of skills and opportunities. A little over one-fifth of employed people held regular wage or salaried jobs in 2023-24 (July-June), according to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), a trend that has persisted for the past few years. 

 

Fears of an ageing population stem from rising life expectancy and the decline in TFR. For instance, in 2024, life expectancy for males rose to 71 years and for females to 74 years, up from 64.6 and 67.7 years, respectively, in 2011. 

However, these apprehensions may be misplaced. As shown in the chart, India's ageing population (those over 60 years) accounted for 10.1 per cent of the total in 2021, a figure projected to rise to 15 per cent by 2035. 

“We need not press the panic button,” says Amitabh Kundu, a development economist and professor emeritus at the Ahmedabad-based L J University. “We don't have a problem of losing on our demographic dividend for next 15 years.”  

Anil K Sood, professor and co-founder of the Institute for Advanced Studies in Complex Choices, says that while India currently benefits from a demographic dividend, the fall in TFR to 2 during 2019-21 makes it highly likely that the country will grow old before it gets rich. Even the richest states are just at the lower end of the upper-middle income bracket, with per capita incomes of $4,500–$14,000. 

Sood adds that if India grows at 10 per cent annually and the threshold shifts by just five per cent, it will take nearly 25 years for a state like Telangana to reach the lowest end of the rich income bracket.  

 

Quality jobs & re-skilling

  The second reason is a consequence of this.

  There are voices asking couples in their states to have more children. In southern states, particularly, the TFR is lower than in states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, as the charts show. 

Kundu says India is one of the least dependent countries in terms of its elderly population, but the dependency rate (proportion of old people to the working-age population) is high in southern India. 

He is of the view that migration should be freely allowed within the country to address this issue in states with low TFR. Although migration is constitutionally allowed, many states have recently imposed restrictions on it. 

"These curbs harm the private market. It should be noted that during Covid, buses from Kerala were deployed to bring labour from Bihar," he recalls. 

He also highlights that the female labour force participation rate (LFPR) in the country is low. While employment has been rising, good-quality jobs have not. Therefore, the workforce should be skilled to take up good-quality jobs, and the LFPR of women should be increased, Kundu suggests. 

To reduce the dependence of seniors on the younger population, Kundu suggests reskilling those aged over 60.

Sood says the only long-term solution lies in improving a family’s ability to earn and save, and in accelerating public investment in living conditions, education, and primary healthcare. 

Those who called upon a majority religious community to have more children to counter the population growth of a minority community are not considering the facts, the experts say. 

The TFR of all communities, except for Sikhs and Jains, has decreased during 2019-21 compared to 2015-16, according to the NFHS. 

Although Muslims still have a TFR above the replacement level, it fell to 2.36 in 2019-21 from 2.62 in 2015-16. In all other communities, the TFR is below the replacement level. Even Sikhs and Jains, who saw a rise in TFR during this period, had it at 1.61 and 1.6, respectively, in 2019-21. 

Kundu says the current debate over the dominance of one religious minority group is pointless, as this will not happen. "Their (Muslims’) fertility rate has also been coming down," he points out. 

He adds that no one would listen to the call to have more children.