 "Why does the Andhra CM Chandrababu Naidu want families to have more kids?")
With India’s fertility rate dropping below the crucial replacement level of 2.1 to 1.91 in 2021, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu has raised concerns, urging families in southern states to have more children. His remarks come at a time when worries about ageing populations and a shrinking workforce are particularly acute in the southern regions, where fertility rates are among the lowest in the country.
In a recent address, Naidu warned of the demographic risks posed by an ageing population and dwindling youth, highlighting the potential need for legislative interventions. Among the measures under consideration is a new law that would permit only individuals with more than two children to contest local body elections—a significant shift in state policy aimed at encouraging larger families.
The replacement-level fertility debate
Fertility rates below the replacement level—typically set at 2.1 children per woman—are causing alarm among policymakers worldwide. This rate is the threshold at which a population can sustain itself without declining, accounting for child mortality and other factors. When fertility rates consistently dip below this level, the consequences can be severe, leading to a shrinking workforce, greater pressure on healthcare and social services, and a host of economic challenges.
Andhra Pradesh’s fertility rate of 1.70, as highlighted by the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), is well below the national average. The state is not alone in facing such challenges; other southern states, including Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana, are grappling with similarly low fertility rates. Naidu’s proposal to amend electoral eligibility criteria is just one of the strategies the state is considering to reverse the trend.
Andhra Pradesh’s legislative push for larger families
In a significant policy shift, the Andhra Pradesh government recently passed a Bill in August that reversed its long-standing two-child policy, which had disqualified individuals with more than two children from participating in local elections. This legislative shift is part of a broader population management strategy aimed at incentivising larger families. Naidu has indicated that further measures are on the horizon, including possible incentives for families with more than two children.
The state’s aggressive push to encourage population growth reflects mounting concerns over the long-term implications of declining fertility. Without a sustainable youth population to replace the ageing workforce, Andhra Pradesh—and indeed much of India—could face severe social and economic challenges in the coming decades.
The global warning: Lessons from Japan and China
Chief Minister Naidu’s call for larger families is rooted in the cautionary tales of countries like Japan and China, which are grappling with the profound consequences of falling fertility rates. Both nations are struggling to manage ageing populations, with fewer workers supporting an ever-growing number of elderly citizens. Naidu has urged India to heed these examples, warning that similar demographic imbalances could take hold if action is not taken swiftly.
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The steep decline in Andhra Pradesh’s fertility rate mirrors global trends, with women opting for higher education, delayed marriages, and smaller families. This phenomenon is not unique to India; it is part of a broader global shift as nations develop economically and socially.
Fertility rates across India: A stark contrast
While southern states are seeing fertility rates plunge, the northern and eastern regions of India present a contrasting picture. Bihar leads the country with a fertility rate of 2.98, followed by Meghalaya at 2.91. In these states, socio-economic factors, limited access to family planning, and cultural norms contribute to higher birth rates. Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Manipur are also experiencing fertility rates above the replacement level.
In stark contrast, urban centres and states like Sikkim (1.05), Kerala (1.80), and Punjab (1.63) are seeing much lower fertility rates. These disparities reflect differing levels of education, urbanisation, and access to healthcare. Urban couples, for example, are increasingly prioritising careers and opting for smaller families. The fertility rate for women with higher educational qualifications is just 1.2, compared to 2.3 for those with no formal education.
The road ahead
India is at a demographic crossroads. While regions like Andhra Pradesh grapple with declining fertility rates, others maintain higher population growth. As the country’s fertility rate continues its downward trajectory, experts warn of looming labour shortages, rising dependency ratios, and increasing social and economic challenges.
Naidu’s push for legislative changes may be a sign of things to come as India confronts its demographic realities. The balancing act between encouraging population growth and managing resources is delicate, and how the country navigates these challenges will shape its future workforce and economic prosperity.
With a rapidly changing demographic landscape, India’s approach to population management is set to be a critical issue in the years ahead. Whether Naidu’s bold proposals can reverse the fertility decline remains to be seen, but the debate is now front and centre in the country’s policy agenda.