 "IndiGo Q2 results preview: Analysts expect net loss, margin erosion")
IndiGo Q2 results preview, date and time: InterGlobe Aviation-owned IndiGo airlines is scheduled to report its September quarter results (Q2) for the current financial year 2024-25 (FY25) on Friday, October 25, 2024.
Analysts, however, are divided on the budget airline's earnings report card for the quarter amid likely hit on volumes due to Delhi Airport roof collapse case and marginally higher fuel costs on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis.
IndiGo share news
Thus far in financial year 2024-25, IndiGo share price has rallied 29.5 per cent on the BSE as against a 10 per cent rise in the benchmark BSE Sensex.
IndiGo Q2 results 2024 expectations: Brokerages' view
Prabhudas Lilladher
The brokerage expects IndiGo to report revenue of Rs 16,610.1 crore during the quarter, clocking a gain of 11.2 per cent Y-o-Y over Rs 14,943.9-crore revenue seen in Q2 FY24.
On a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis, however, sales may tumble 15.1 per cent from Rs 19,570.7 crore seen in Q1 FY25.
The airline may see a load factor of 83.0 per cent and yield of Rs 4.5.
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"We expect revenue per available seat kilometer (RASK) of Rs 4.35 and gross spread (RASK less fuel CASK) of Rs 2.67 with Ebitdar margin of 15.4 per cent (excluding forex adjustments)," the brokerage said in its preview report.
RASK and CASK (cost of available seat kilometer) are operational metrics for airlines to measure the revenue earned or cost incurred by the airline per seat for every kilometre.
Ebitdar, meanwhile, is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, and rent.
IndiGo reported an Ebitdar margin of 16 per cent in Q2 FY24 and 29.6 per cent in Q1 FY25.
In absolute terms, Ebitdar is seen at Rs 2,553.2 crore for the quarter, up 6.6 per cent Y-o-Y but down 55.9 per cent Q-o-Q.
The brokerage, however, anticipates the airline to report a net loss of Rs 127.7 crore during the quarter compared with a profit of Rs 188.9 crore in Q2 FY24 and Rs 2,728.8 crore in Q1 FY25.
Kotak Institutional Equities
This brokerage forecasts a deeper net loss of Rs 236.7 crore in Q2 FY25 dented by weak operational income.
IndiGo could also report a loss before tax of Rs 236.7 crore compared to profit before tax of Rs 189 crore Y-o-Y and 2,804 crore Q-o-Q.
Sales are projected to rise 15.6 per cent Y-o-Y, but fall 12 per cent Q-o-Q, to Rs 17,268.2 crore in Q2 FY25. Ebitda, meanwhile, is expected to slip 5 per cent on year and 59.5 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 2,089.7 crore.
"We expect IndiGo to see an 8-per cent Y-o-Y growth in passenger count in the quarter and lower Y-o-Y load factor at 83 per cent," the brokerage said.
It added: We expect RASK less CASK (excludes other income and forex) to see a loss of Rs 0.26 per ASK, against loss of Rs 0.1 per ASK in Q2 FY24. The difference is based on lower fuel spreads (crude was falling through the base quarter), and continuation of large part of cost pressures seen in Q4 (P&W issues, employee cost).
Nuvama Institutional Equities
The brokerage expects IndiGo Q2 Ebitdar to rise by 35 per cent Y-o-Y due to continued compensation from original equipment manufacturer (OEM) for breach of contractual obligations, marginally higher ASKMs, RPKMs, yields, and lower CASK.
It sees revenue at Rs 16,218.8 crore (up 9 per cent Y-o-Y/down 17 per cent Q-o-Q); Ebitdar at Rs 3,297.1 crore (up 35 per cent Y-o-Y/down 43 per cent Q-o-Q); and core PAT at Rs 107.9 crore (down 43 per cent Y-o-Y/96 per cent Q-o-Q).