Dhaka's next tasks

Stability and economic progress will have to be restored

Over the past weeks, Bangladesh has undergone a political paroxysm of the sort that it has not seen in recent times. It culminated in the overthrow of the world’s longest-serving woman head of government, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. While the unrest began with protests led by students from Dhaka University, the final coup de grace to Ms Hasina’s rule was provided by the military refusing to back draconian measures after several protestors were killed in clashes with the cadre from Ms Hasina’s Awami League. Her departure on a flight to India was announced by the army chief at a press conference, underlining the military-driven nature of her exit. Questions of the role the army would take in day-to-day administration, however, remain unanswered as it was swiftly announced that Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus, the founder of Grameen Bank, would run an interim administration. A Cabinet that included several student leaders, as well as technocrats, a former army officer, and an Islamist, was announced.

The immediate task facing the interim government is to stabilise the country and hold free and fair elections. This is not as simple as it sounds. The Awami League is facing revenge attacks all over the country. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party, its principal Opposition, has had its organisation decimated by years of persecution; its leader is ailing and, although recently released, has been in jail since 2018. The student movement has not formed itself into any kind of political vehicle as yet. Unless the army wants to see the government fall to the Islamist Jamaat by default, political rebuilding before the elections must be methodical. The broader questions before Bangladesh are practically existential for the country. Although recent headlines have focused on its political instability, it should be remembered that in many ways, not least export performance and human development, the nation has been a standout star in South Asia. It has also kept political Islamism at bay through a self-definition that centres its linguistic struggle against Pakistan. The struggle gave it independence.

However, it cannot rest on these laurels indefinitely. For one, the economy needs to move up the value chain. Its expertise with the export of readymade garments (RMGs) has led to widespread and inclusive increases in prosperity. But overdependence on a single sector has its own problems. The country needs to prepare for a time when it does not have zero-tariff access to Western markets, or automation becomes more widespread in the sector. This will require the ability to shift to other manufacturing sectors, increase labour productivity, and improve the flexibility of capital, so that investment can swiftly follow the demands of the export market. Acting to make this a reality is not impossible. The ossified Awami League government had been in power long enough for relations to develop between political and economic power that held up structural reform. A political change might speed up economic shifts.

Alongside this economic question are political choices. Domestically, preserving the country’s secular character and strengthening its multi-party institutions are essential. Revenge attacks against the Awami League and its perceived supporters must cease. Relations with India, always fraught when the Awamis are out of power, will require special effort from New Delhi to repair after its support for Ms Hasina lasted far longer than was wise or sensible. Mr Yunus is widely respected, but these tasks will test him and his administration.