'Just like Israel': How Trump's likely pick for top diplomat views India

US President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly expected to nominate Senator Marco Rubio, a China hawk and pro-India leader, as his Secretary of State

United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump is expected to nominate Senator Marco Rubio, a China hawk and pro-India leader, as his Secretary of State, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing sources. This appointment would position the Florida-born politician to become the first Latino to serve as America's top diplomat when Trump assumes office in January.

 

The US Secretary of State is the top diplomat and principal advisor to the US President on foreign policy. They oversee the Department of State and represent the US in international affairs and negotiations. 

 

 

According to the report, Rubio, 53, is seen as the most hawkish candidate on Trump's shortlist for the role. Over the years, Rubio has reportedly championed a robust foreign policy, particularly towards America's adversaries such as China, Iran, and Cuba.

 

However, the report noted that Rubio has moderated some of his earlier stances in recent years, to align more closely with Trump's perspectives. Trump, for his part, has criticised previous US administrations for engaging in expensive and unproductive foreign wars, advocating instead for a more restrained foreign policy approach. 

 

The report cautioned that Trump, known for his unpredictability, could change his decision. However, it added that sources had told the news organisation that he appeared committed to picking Rubio at the time of reporting. Nonetheless, representatives for Trump and Rubio had not responded to its requests for comments at the time of filing.

 

The incoming Trump administration will inherit a more unstable global landscape than in 2017, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and closer cooperation between China and US adversaries such as Russia and Iran.

 

Pro-India

 

Rubio's past record also indicates a pro-India stance.

 

In July, Rubio introduced a Bill in the US Congress, proposing to treat India on par with US allies such as Japan, Israel, South Korea, and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nations regarding technology transfers. The Bill also supported India's response to threats to its territorial integrity and proposed to bar Pakistan from receiving US security assistance if it was found to have sponsored terrorism against India. 

 

After introducing the US-India Defense Cooperation Act in the US Senate, Rubio had said that "Communist China" continues to aggressively expand its domain in the Indo-Pacific region, all while it seeks to impede the sovereignty and autonomy of the US' regional partners. He added that it is crucial for the US to continue its support in countering these malicious tactics, and that India, along with other nations in the region, is not alone.

 

Back then, reports had said that the Bill was unlikely to see significant progress given the short timeline of a divided Congress in an election year, but it could be reintroduced in the next Congress.

 

The Bill also emphasised the need to enhance strategic diplomatic, economic, and military ties with New Delhi to strengthen the US-India partnership.

 

The proposed legislation had set a Statement of Policy affirming that the US would support India in addressing threats to its territorial integrity, provide necessary security assistance to deter adversaries, and cooperate with India on defence, civil space, technology, medicine, and economic investments.

 

If enacted, the Bill would have granted India a limited exemption from sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) for Russian military equipment currently in use by the Indian armed forces. It also would have promoted expediting certifications for letters of offer to sell defence articles, services, design and construction services, and major defence equipment to India, driven by the belief that this would align with US interests and contribute to regional peace and stability. 

 

The Bill proposed to:

 

*Treat India as if it holds the same status as US treaty allies such as Japan, Israel, South Korea, and NATO nations for technology transfers

 

*Authorise the Secretary of State to enter into a memorandum of understanding with India to enhance military cooperation

 

*Expedite the provision of excess defence articles to India for two years and grant it similar status as other allies

 

*Expand International Military Education and Training Cooperation with New Delhi

 

Additionally, the legislation would have mandated a report to Congress on Pakistan's use of offensive force, including terrorism and proxy groups, against India. It would have also stipulated barring Pakistan from receiving security assistance if found to have sponsored terrorism against India.

 

At the time, this was the first India-focused Bill introduced in the US Congress that had sought to elevate India to the same level as treaty allies, exempt it from CAATSA sanctions, and impose sanctions on Pakistan for promoting terrorism against India.

 

As of July, the Bill had been read twice in the US Senate and referred to the Committee on Foreign Relations.

 

China hawk

 

Rubio has established himself as a leading China hawk in the US Senate, explains the Reuters report, adding that Beijing sanctioned him in 2020 for his stance on democracy protests in Hong Kong.

 

Notably, Rubio also urged a national security review of the popular Chinese app TikTok's acquisition of Musical.ly in 2019, which led to an investigation and subsequent divestment order.

 

As the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, Rubio also continued to pressure the Biden administration, including demanding a ban on all sales to Huawei after the release of a new laptop powered by an Intel AI processor chip.

 

Negotiated settlement to Ukraine war

 

Addressing the Ukraine crisis will be a significant priority for Rubio.

 

In recent interviews, Rubio has suggested that Ukraine should pursue a negotiated settlement with Russia rather than aim to reclaim all territories lost over the past decade. He was also among the 15 Republican senators who voted against a $95 billion military aid package for Ukraine passed in April. 

   

Although Rubio does not represent the most isolationist choice, his likely nomination reflects a significant shift in Republican foreign policy under Trump, explains the Reuters report.

 

Traditionally a party advocating military intervention, many of Trump's allies now emphasise restraint, especially in Europe, where Republicans often criticise allies for insufficient defence spending.

 

"I'm not on Russia's side — but unfortunately the reality of it is that the way the war in Ukraine is going to end is with a negotiated settlement," Rubio told NBC in September.

 

Incidentally, this is similar to the stance India has adopted on the Russia-Ukraine war — that the focus should be on "peaceful resolution through dialogue and diplomacy".